March 8, 2026

The Brazilian Director Who’s Up for Multiple Oscars

 

 Kleber Mendonça Filho wearing glasses.

 

 

For Kleber Mendonça Filho, filmmaking is an act of both provocation and preservation. Mendonça was born in 1968, in the early years of a ruthless military dictatorship—a time when cinema, like much else, was harshly constrained. His mother, Joselice Jucá, was a historian who studied Brazil’s abolitionist movement, and she taught him that filling gaps in the cultural memory was a way to expose concealed truths. In Mendonça’s work, memory functions as a tool of defiance.

His relationship with film is inextricably linked with his home town, Recife—a port city where attractive beaches and high-rise developments coexist with sprawling favelas and rampant crime. In his youth, Mendonça was fascinated by the city’s grand cinema palaces. He carried a Super 8 camera to the tops of marquees and shot dizzying images; he spent hours in projection booths, learning the mechanics of how films reached the screen. Over time, Mendonça watched those theatres fall into decline, an experience that he likened to being aboard a ship as it wrecked. But even as Recife lost its allure, he made the city a fixture of his films—a way of vindicating its place in history. His first narrative feature, “Neighboring Sounds,” takes place on a street where he lived as a child, a setting that he spent years documenting. Later, he made “Pictures of Ghosts,” a documentary about Recife told largely through its cinemas.

In Mendonça’s work, political commentary coincides with art-house aesthetics and elements borrowed from genre movies—science fiction, Western, neo-noir. Questions of justice and truth often play out through dark comedy. “Neighboring Sounds,” an unflinching portrait of class hierarchy in Brazil, came out in 2012 and was widely acknowledged as one of the best films of the year. It was followed in 2016 by “Aquarius,” which depicts a woman’s crusade against wealthy developers seeking to demolish her seafront home. “Aquarius” was celebrated at festivals around the world, winning prizes everywhere from Sydney to Cartagena. As Mendonça’s international reputation grew, the hard-right President Jair Bolsonaro took office in Brazil, and Mendonça used his platform to denounce the country’s democratic erosion.

His latest film, “The Secret Agent,” is set in 1977, during the era of military rule. The protagonist is a scientist named Armando Solimões, played by Wagner Moura, who has been fending off the efforts of a government-linked businessman to take control of his lab in Recife. Now Solimões is on the run, scrambling to get his young son out of the city before hitmen can catch them. The film is both an indictment of authoritarian repression and an absurdist thriller, with set pieces involving a reanimated human leg and the hulking corpse of a tiger shark. Mendonça uses these surreal flourishes to reimagine the country of his youth—a place where gruesome crimes were committed by people determined to obscure the evidence. I recently sat down with him to talk about “The Secret Agent,” which has been nominated for Best Picture and Best International Feature at the Academy Awards, and about the power of reclaiming the past. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

I want to start with Recife, the setting for this film. How does your home town fit into the history of filmmaking in Brazil?

A hundred years ago, in the silent era, just before sound came, a small group of filmmakers in Recife collaborated to make thirteen feature-length films. Only six survived. The media has always been concentrated in São Paulo and Rio, two thousand kilometres away in the southeast—not only cinema but money, radio, and television. Recife is in the northeast. It had one of the first law schools in Brazil, and many names from literature and music. But not much happened from the nineteen-twenties until the nineteen-seventies, in terms of filmmaking.

In the seventies, local artists began to use Super 8 cameras to make films, and that also became an interesting moment in filmmaking. Many of those films have survived. Then, in the nineties, something really interesting happened: we had a music scene which became very strong. That’s when I was leaving college, and it really pushed me toward developing my own projects. In the past thirty years, we could draw up a list of maybe twenty-five filmmakers, men and women, who are part of a very interesting film scene in Recife. Their films are all very personal and unusual, but they also managed to establish a communication with audiences—not ever becoming blockbusters, but becoming a thing.

How has Recife traditionally been portrayed in films?

We almost never saw Recife on the screen. There was one film from 1983, shot partly in Recife—a historical film by Tizuka Yamasaki, a filmmaker from the south. But that was it, really. I grew up watching telenovelas made in Rio, and of course Hollywood films. So the connection between reality and the projected image simply did not exist in terms of Recife. But, in 2002, when I was in the Rio de Janeiro International Film Festival, I saw a film by a filmmaker called Claudio Assis. For the first time, I saw Recife in wide-screen and color, and I thought, I’m finally seeing the city I know.

After that, more films were made in Recife. “Pictures of Ghosts,” the film I did before “Secret Agent,” it’s really like a family album of the city, taken from so many films—from films done a hundred years ago to Super 8 films done in the seventies, maybe some newsreels done in the fifties. And then, in the past thirty years, so many shorts and features have been shot in Recife. That’s when we began to develop what I call a microclimate of local audiences really, really supporting local films. They would play all the local films and there would be lines around the block.

Many years ago, you were among those moviegoers in Recife.

My mother was the real cinephile. I was always being taken to the cinema as a young child. We spent almost five years living in England, where my mom did her Ph.D. research, and England played an important part in my life, showing me different filmgoing experiences. But then I went back to Recife in 1986. I was eighteen, and I rediscovered the city in a completely different way. The downtown was peppered with movie palaces.

You studied journalism and became a film critic. If you had an interest in films, why not make them?

There were no film schools in Recife at the time, and journalism brought me closer to film. From the first day, I got to meet new friends who were also cinephiles, and they dreamed of making films and writing about film or music. And then, slowly, I drifted toward an idea of cinema. I also used the equipment in the school to develop little short video projects. Today, you can make something interesting with a telephone. But, at that time, I needed a Super VHS editing suite with a camera, which I didn’t have. So that’s how I began.

Tell me about a typical early short.

“Lixo nos Canais” was about television—my own take on Brazilian television at the time. Not very sophisticated, but it had some acid. It was kind of sarcastic about the state of television and how it humiliates people, how it’s prejudiced, how it portrayed women and Black people. Grotesquerie was the norm.

Was there a moment when, after years as a critic, you decided that you were ready to make your first film?

I was very happy as a critic, because I wrote a lot. I saw a lot of films and my work had a readership. Of course, I made many people very unhappy, because I would write about Brazilian cinema. I had a youthful desire to propose changes, which is something that I do not regret. I think I was quite tough on a number of films.

What needed to be reformed, in your view?

The diversity of subject matter, the way films were shot, the complete absence of any cinema outside of São Paulo and Rio. Upper-class directors making films about very impoverished regions and communities—the classic themes, hunger and violence in the favelas. You could tell the filmmakers were not really familiar with those things. They just made the films.

So all of that came without a filter. And then I became quite known—and respected and despised—in some circles. Slowly, especially with the arrival of digital, I began to really make my short films, and I spent about ten years making short films, which became very successful. I always had someone saying, “Yeah, this is really cool, but when are you gonna make a real film?” And, in my mind, a short film is a real film. I once wrote that some features should open for short films, rather than the reverse.

But then something happened: I saw “Do the Right Thing,” by Spike Lee. And that really did something to me, because I had never seen an American film, a New York film, with new faces, a new way of looking at people in society. It was set in one block, one street. And this is something that I found very attractive. That’s probably when I began to think about a story. I finally sat down in 2007 or 2008 to write “Neighboring Sounds.” Sure enough, there was a lot of “Do the Right Thing” in “Neighboring Sounds”—and, of course, a lot of myself.

Talk about how working as a critic has informed your filmmaking.

I never compartmentalized criticism, filmmaking, going to the cinema. In my mind, it was all the same thing: watching films and writing about them and trying to understand what culture is trying to say. I think that probably explains why I was so hard on some films. Because I really think that each film or book is a reaction to life in society. So I think trying to understand what artistic expression or even the industry is trying to say is an interesting way of understanding cinema. And for me, that’s doing cinema. There was never a boundary for me.

You’ve described memories of your mother, the historian, returning home with a Panasonic tape recorder and a box full of cassettes. What did her craft teach you about oral history?

She talked a lot about how interested she was in listening to people. Let’s say that you’re going to write a story about a hotel. Normally you would interview the manager, because the manager is in a position of power. She would interview the guy at the door and the waiters and the cleaning lady. And then maybe, if she had time, she would interview the manager.

This is something that I only came to realize when I was making “Pictures of Ghosts,” because I really allowed myself to actively remember my mother. I found this amazing piece of television from the archives, where she gave an interview about history and oral history. She wasn’t a filmmaker, but her interviews were very much like films, because, once you sit down and listen to them, it’s very much like a documentary. She did a series of interviews, from 1979 to 1981, with the surviving filmmakers from the nineteen-twenties. These interviews, they’re precious. They are voices from the past.

I remember one day—it must have been 1980 or 1981—she came home and said, “I just interviewed Jota Soares, the filmmaker.” And I was just a kid. I was into films, so I was a little impressed, but I had no idea of what it meant. When I listened to the interview, four years ago, it was so moving. That’s one of the ideas in “The Secret Agent,” the idea that there is somebody listening in the future.

How did listening to those recordings contribute to the making of “The Secret Agent”?

It’s everything. It’s happened three times in my life as a screenwriter, twice with my own projects: I tried to write a script—great idea, great starting point, but I couldn’t make it work. My heart wasn’t in it.

I found the heart for “The Secret Agent” making “Pictures of Ghosts”—the power of things that survive and are kept in archives. Because the archive is somebody’s proof of life. When you hear a voice recorded in 1977, that person was alive in ’77. She was in love. She had dreams or desires, or she had to deal with the traffic. Sometimes, listening to these old tapes, it’s so moving, because sometimes you hear a truck in the background. Oh, that’s a truck. How many people were in that truck? What was it carrying?

And then things just get more complex because my mother died quite young. She died at fifty-four. So there was this whole thing of someone who’s not here anymore, but her voice still is, and her work still is.

Probably the strongest feeling of time travel that I have ever felt is making films and working with archives. Because time travel, as far as I know, doesn’t really exist. There is no DeLorean, no time machine. But, when you’re holding a cassette tape, it’s the actual cassette tape that was recorded in 1977 or 1974. I felt that a number of times when I went to cinematheques. You go into the restoration department, see the big scanner and the negative, and you go, “That’s the camera negative that was on the set in 1951.” It’s a historical artifact.

I worked for seven years on “Pictures of Ghosts”—a film that does not have a script. It was all driven by discoveries. This wonderful friend, a researcher who has been working with me, Karina, she calls one day and says, “I think I found 35-mm. images of Janet Leigh and Tony Curtis on the Duarte Coelho Bridge.” And I go, “I think I have the film.”

All of those finds, these discoveries, they put me in the right state of mind to write “The Secret Agent.” A lot of “The Secret Agent” comes from the power of history. And the power of history has nothing to do with the way people remember history.

You met Wagner Moura at Cannes when you were a critic. And you said that the part of Armando was written for him.

It was written for him out of my admiration for him as an actor, as a person. Wagner is a good man. We happen to share many points of view on Brazil and on life. And we don’t have a problem expressing ourselves. I find myself with a microphone and somebody asks me a question, like, “What do you think of Bolsonaro?” And I say, “I don’t think he’s a good idea for Brazil.” That becomes a huge controversy—because major newspapers at the time were reluctant even to describe Bolsonaro as “far-right.”

Wagner has had his fair share of backlash and attacks from the right. And so have I. You can’t make a film and shut the fuck up—say, “Nothing to add.” “The Secret Agent” takes you many different places, but it’s very firmly grounded in historical reality. Yes, there is a cat with two heads, but that is Brazil in 1977, from the décor to the clothing to the cars to the atmosphere. So you build on realism, and then you can blur the lines on other elements.

At the beginning of the film, you describe that historical era as a “period of mischief,” which I thought was an interesting choice, considering that the word “dictatorship” is never mentioned in the film. Why?

It’s a literary way of beginning the film. I really like the classic credit roll in the beginning of a film, or maybe a card in the beginning. “Casablanca” has that. “Star Wars” has that. Of course, with Star Wars, you’re being welcomed into a completely crazy, woo-hoo world that came out of George Lucas’s mind. But I think that for a film that takes place in 1977 to start once again with the card, “There was a dictatorship taking place in Brazil”—I thought that I should really avoid that and instead grossly underplay, almost in a poetic way, the seriousness of what we were going through.

The Portuguese word is . . .

Pirraça.” It’s a wonderful word, quite old-fashioned. It usually means someone who’s teasing someone else, in a mean-spirited way. Someone who has the power to play a prank on you. And that prank might go overboard.

I never planned the script for “The Secret Agent.” I did not have a map. I’ve seen some by colleagues and friends—it almost looks like algebra. The script wrote itself, in a way. I was sometimes surprised at some of the twists and turns that it took.

No outlines?

There were no outlines. The script stemmed from the desire to dramatize some situations and also the desire to shoot those scenes. I was salivating at even the thought of shooting the whole sequence in the registry office, with all those public servants, the wooden floors and the telephones. I just love that whole universe.

You’ve said that the film isn’t about memory—it’s about forgetting. And, in this conversation, you’ve suggested that we live in a post-truth era. How is that collective amnesia playing out in Brazil?

Unfortunately, it’s a very strong part of Brazilian life. TV has traditionally belonged to one group—the Globo group. And they have dictated, in a way, behavior and perception of truth, of politics. Globo always supported the military dictatorship, right from the beginning. In 1984, when people were fighting for general elections for the first time after the coup, Globo ignored almost a million people in downtown São Paulo. And that’s the way that society is framed, I think, in Brazil. My mother being a historian, she was always telling me where to look. But many people are not like that. And I think that we migrated from just manipulation of power to something that is completely out of control.

In a country that, for political reasons, has erased, or tried to forget, or tried not to remember important aspects of history, the mere fact of remembering something might land you an accusation of being a communist or a radical, just because you are saying, “But that’s not how it happened.” And I think there is a strong resistance against reality.

It’s happening in the U.S. It’s happening in Brazil and in Europe. There is a group of society, usually from the far right, and they are fighting reality every day. They wake up in the morning and go to sleep fighting reality. We are now entering Philip K. Dick territory—memory implants. You don’t actually have to implant a chip. You can actually choose whatever reality you want to choose.

In Brazil, we had Bolsonaro saying that COVID was nothing—“Get off your asses and go to work today. It’s nothing. If you’re an athletic type, like I am, nothing will happen to you.” It was a very dark period we went through. I’m just happy that it’s over. The right seems to be lost now. Bolsonaro is in jail. And it feels we are making more sense now as a society.

Under Bolsonaro, there was a concerted effort not to have your film submitted to the Academy.

Back in 2016, there was a clear act of sabotage against “Aquarius.” The month we premièred at Cannes in competition, the Ministry of Culture had been extinguished, because Dilma Rousseff was impeached. It was all a cynical coup d’état. [Rousseff, a former guerrilla turned politician, had been elected to succeed the longtime leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. She faced corruption charges that her supporters argued were politically motivated.] The voting in Congress was broadcast live on a Sunday afternoon—one of the most grotesque moments in Brazilian history, because it really was about the anger from the right at being shut out of power through democratic elections since 2002. Bolsonaro himself, as a congressman, dedicated his vote for impeachment to the guy whose unit tortured Dilma in prison when she was twenty-two.

So, a few weeks later, we went to Cannes with “Aquarius.” [Kleber began to cry, then continued.] Sorry. We went to Cannes, and we did a protest on the red carpet—just holding bits of paper. We went into the theatre. Two hours and twenty minutes later, we came out, and we understood that there was a firestorm in Brazil because of the protest.

The far right just became very mad at me. And then the people who took power, who extinguished the Ministry of Culture, they were the ones who got to pick which Brazilian film to submit for the Oscars. Friends and colleagues withdrew their films in solidarity, saying there was only one film to be picked that year. And then they picked the most unknown, most mysterious film. It was a scandal.

How has “The Secret Agent” been received? Not just in Brazil but in countries like Spain, where people are also still grappling with questions of historical memory.

I went to San Sebastián, and I talked to cinephiles and critics. They feel that it’s very strong for the Spanish, particularly because of Franco. Spain still has many families that would rather not talk about what happened.

And many mass graves.

Yeah. It’s a very strong theme in Spain. It’s a very strong theme in Chile. Dilma was the one who put together a truth-and-reconciliation committee, which Bolsonaro immediately hijacked when he came into power.

Brazilian society isn’t particularly pragmatic. Some societies will say, “This is what we have to do, and we will do it.” Brazil is more, like, “Oh, I don’t know, let’s just move on and let’s not talk about unpleasant things.” I’ve heard that in family circles. I’ve heard that from politicians, and I heard that from Bolsonaro. But he didn’t put it as nicely as I just did. He said, “Only dogs look for bones.” ♦

THE NEW YORKER  

 

March 2, 2026

Big Change Seems Certain in Iran. What Kind Is the Question.

 A crowd of people, many wearing head coverings. One person cries out while holding a picture of a bearded man.

 Experts say that Iran’s clerical rulers may be too deeply entrenched for Iranians to topple them, and that the U.S. and Israeli strikes risk setting off deeper radicalization or violence.

  

 The death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment in the 47-year existence of the Islamic Republic. The scenes that followed — throngs of Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate, others turning out to grieve — signal the deep uncertainty about what comes next.

There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump’s call to take over the government? Can Iran’s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?

Mr. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran’s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.

Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran’s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests.

Nonetheless, Iran is headed toward a transformative moment, said Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

“Some kind of change will happen in the system,” he said. “But in which direction? We don’t know.”

ImagePeople standing silhouetted against a night city skyline. Two hold phones with bright screens.
Iranians in Tehran took to their phones as news spread that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed.Credit...The New York Times

In some ways, Iranians are ever more defiant after facing a brutal crackdown on nationwide antigovernment protests in January, in which security forces killed thousands. As the violent repression subsided, the risks were still high even before the bombardment began. Yet students still protested and held sit-ins, and the families of slain protesters used their memorial services to voice dissent.

After the authorities confirmed Ayatollah Khamenei’s death in the attack, many Iranians dared to celebrate publicly — but not to the point of risking bloodshed.

Arian, a resident of a suburb near Tehran, described seeing people “honking in the streets, shouting chants from windows.” Like all people interviewed inside the country, he asked to withhold his full name for fear of retaliation.

On Sunday morning, Arian said, he saw people dancing and singing in the streets — until they noticed the arrival of armed members of Iran’s Basij, the volunteer militia force aligned with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. “When the Basij showed up, everyone got scared and quickly scattered,” he said.

Even under aerial bombardment, Iran’s domestic security apparatus was still making a show of force. Basij forces, estimated to be around one million strong around the country, have already been mobilized around the capital.

“The brutal killing of protesters in January suggests domestic unrest will be met with an iron fist,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “This time under far harsher wartime conditions.”

Some airstrikes have begun to target Basij and intelligence headquarters, but experts are divided as to whether airstrikes can inflict enough damage to weaken a deeply entrenched and complex network of security forces across such a large country.

“The problem is these are very multilayered targets,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan. “You hit one, but there are so many others. I am not sure how long it can be sustained, munitions wise.”

Image
A cityscape under a cloudy sky with a large plume of dark gray smoke rising between buildings.
Smoke rising over Tehran on Sunday following strikes.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Even as strikes wiped out several of Iran’s top political and military leaders, official statements went to great lengths to show the system was prepared for the shock and still functioning.

After Ayatollah Khamenei’s death, Iranian officials announced that the government would follow the constitutional framework for selecting the country’s next leader, and that a temporary leadership council would be formed.

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council who is seen as the de facto leader behind the scenes, stressed that idea in televised comments urging unity after the ayatollah’s death.

“Throughout history, the Iranian nation has faced even greater challenges; even the Mongols plowed through the entire country, yet the people stood firm and defended their land,” he said. “Such martyrdoms make people resistant and steadfast.”

But the system could undergo a transformation from within. Mr. Larijani, seen as a pragmatist, is the type of figure observers say could potentially strike a deal with Washington now that Iran’s more ideologically driven supreme leader is gone.

Some ordinary Iranians said that such a deal, if accompanied by an easing of international sanctions on Iran, may be palatable to many residents who have suffered through so many months of instability and a collapsing economy.

“Most people aren’t chasing deep meaning,” said Payman, 45, a businessman in Tehran. “They just want a normal life: family, work, small goals. If that becomes possible, a lot of people might stop pushing for bigger change.”

But there is also the possibility Iran’s new leaders would turn the state in the opposite direction — making it even more radical. “The risk is that the more hard-line figures emerge,” Mr. Divsallar said.

The fact that the leadership change was brought about by American and Israeli attacks increases that possibility, he said. “That works completely against what people wished for,” he said.

Experts point to several appointments that could tip a transition in this direction.

Image
A crowd on a street, with one woman holding a poster of a white-bearded individual. A building mural in the background depicts similar figures and vibrant flags.
A woman holding a photo of Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Two of the members of Iran’s interim leadership council are hard-liners. One of them, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, is from Iran’s Council of Guardians, a powerful group of jurists. The other is Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary. The third member, President Masoud Pezeshkian, is a moderate, but had been largely sidelined before the war.

Another bellwether is the reported appointment of Gen. Ahmad Vahidi to lead the Revolutionary Guards.

“He’s an incredibly brutal person. So I think they’re not going to hesitate to use extreme violence,” said Mr. Sabet, of the Geneva Graduate Institute.

Beyond toppling or transforming Iran’s current system is the possibility that the war unleashes chaos in a country of 90 million people that borders seven countries.

There are many potential opponents who could use violence to challenge a weakened state. Some ethnic minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, already have armed opposition groups.

Mustafa Hijri, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iran, said that his organization was part of an alliance of groups from Iran’s ethnic minorities, and that among them were parties that “when necessary, may engage in armed resistance as part of their struggle.”

Officials from two Kurdish groups in exile, who asked not to be identified, said they were planning on trying to restart operations inside the country, aiming to encourage an uprising in Iran’s Kurdish region.

Even before the war started, many Iranians were bemoaning the increasingly polarized state of the country in the wake of the brutal crackdowns on the protests.

The government retains an ideological and religious support base that, in the current war, would be highly motivated to fight back against perceived threats. That raises the possibility of internal fragmentation and violence that spills beyond Iran’s borders.

On Sunday, Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, an influential cleric in Iran, called for jihad against Israel and the United States, according to remarks published in the semiofficial Mehr news agency.

All of these factors create a growing risk of a dangerous insurgency should the state collapse, similar to the insurgency that broke out in Iraq after U.S. forces invaded it in 2003, said Ms. Geranmayeh, the analyst.

“This is a holy war for them — and they seem willing to burn down the country and region before surrendering,” she said. “If this air campaign succeeds in toppling Iran’s leadership, years of chaos probably lie ahead for the country and its people.”

the new york times 

 

 

Iran’s Regime May Survive, but the Middle East Will Be Changed

 A large portrait of a bearded man with glasses is carried through a dense crowd. Many people wear dark clothing; some have head coverings.

 A badly weakened Iran will no longer intimidate or threaten its neighbors in the same way. The regional impact could be comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

rlanger

 Iran’s supreme leader may be dead, but there will be another. Its slain military commanders will be replaced. A governing system created over 47 years will not easily disintegrate under air power alone. Iran retains the capacity to strike back against American and Israeli airstrikes, and the war’s trajectory is unclear.

But the Islamic Republic, already weakened and unpopular, is now further diminished, its power at home and in the region at one of its lowest ebbs since its leaders took power during the revolution that overthrew Iran’s American-backed shah in 1978-79.

Even if the regime does not fall, which remains the stated aim of President Trump, this massive attack is likely to have strategic consequences in the Middle East comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed on Saturday morning, maintained a visceral antagonism toward Israel and the United States, which he consistently called “the Great Satan.” He built and financed a regional set of proxy militias that surrounded Israel and shared his hatred of it. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, the Houthis in Yemen — all served both to attack Israeli interests and protect Iran itself.

Iran built up its missile program and enriched uranium to nearly bomb grade, even as it denied ever wanting a bomb. It became a regional power so strong that Sunni leaders in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf sought to keep good ties with a Shia Islamic regime that also threatened them.

Iran’s decline began two years ago, with Israel’s tough and sustained response to an invasion by Hamas from Gaza. It accelerated when Israel eroded Iran’s air defenses, defeated Hezbollah and profited from the Syrian revolution that overthrew Bashar al-Assad, another ally of Tehran.

But now, with the ayatollah’s death and intense destruction from the air, Iran’s regional sway has ebbed further, with uncertain consequences that will play out over months and even years.

Image
An urban landscape with many buildings under a blue sky. Several large, dark gray smoke plumes rise high into the air.
Strikes over Tehran on Sunday. Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

“The Islamic Republic as we know it will not survive this,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based research group.

“The Mideast won’t be the same again,” she said. “For 47 years the Mideast has been living with a hostile regime and a destabilizing force that it has tried to first isolate and then manage.”

Now, she said, the regime might be dismantled and something new and different might emerge. That leadership may turn out to be even less friendly to Washington, particularly if dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Whoever takes charge, Iran will be badly weakened in the medium term, more inward-looking, and focused on political competition, internal security and economic chaos, Ms. Vakil said.

In the coming days, however, Iran may spread more short-term chaos as its current leadership tries to bring an end to the war while saving the regime.

Iran will try to rapidly increase the cost for Israel, the United States and its Gulf allies “to force them to back down before this succeeds in destabilizing the regime,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Increasing its attacks on Arab countries in the gulf is risky but may be Iran’s best chance to shorten the war — since it could prompt the Arab world to pressure the U.S. and Israel to end their campaign.

“Iran’s aim now is to absorb U.S. and Israeli attacks, hold its position and signal expansion of war, and wait for worried regional actors to mediate a cease-fire,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, on social media. “They expect that if Trump does not get a quick win then he will look for an exit, and negotiations afterwards will be different.”

Image
A tall, dark skyscraper at night shows a large orange fire and smoke from its midsection. Lit buildings and palm trees are in the foreground.
A burning building hit by an Iranian drone strike in Bahrain on Saturday. Credit...Reuters

Iran’s proxies across the Mideast could also come to Iran’s defense, increasing the price of an extended war, according to Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, a research institution.

“If Hezbollah fully engages from Lebanon, if militias strike U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, or if the Houthis escalate in the Red Sea, this stops being a bilateral conflict and becomes a regionwide war stretching across the Middle East,” Mr. Vaez said. A wider war would have considerable longer-term impact on oil prices and inflation, especially if Iran can shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key international shipping route.

But in the longer term, an Iran that is wrapped up in its own domestic problems — trying to avoid elite fragmentation and consolidate a new leadership or even move toward a more consultative one, with less clerical influence and more power sharing — will not have the energy or the resources to meddle in the region. That could open up new opportunities for Lebanon and the Palestinians, as it has already done for the Syrians.

It leaves Israel ascendant, making it even more of an ineradicable fact in the region that the Sunni nations must accommodate. A new and more moderate government could take office in Israel after elections later this year. With Iran defanged, it may feel it has the mandate to build on the cease-fire in Gaza and negotiate seriously with the Palestinians, under pressure from Washington and the Saudis.

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A collapsed building surrounded by debris. People in dark uniforms, one with a gun, search through the rubble, while another person inspects inside a damaged section.I
sraeli security officials inspecting the ruins of a building hit by an Iranian strike on Tel Aviv on Sunday. Credit...Amit Elkayam for The New York Times
 Israel itself would prefer regime change, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear, but would be content, analysts say, with a divided, broken and chaotic Iran wrapped up in its own problems, like Syria is now.

Presuming there is no revolution, a reconstituted Iranian government must still grapple with a powerful Israel and a United States it cannot trust. The current regime has made nuclear enrichment a key element in its efforts to cement regional power and deterrence. And it has refused to change course, even as that display of persistence seems to have brought it closer to destruction than any other policy, whether that be supporting terrorism abroad or massive repression at home.

It is unclear if even a more moderate government would make new concessions over its nuclear program under the pressure of war. It is also unclear if any Iranian leader would feel able to trust President Trump, who tore up President Obama’s nuclear deal in 2018, and now has bombed Iran twice in the middle of ongoing negotiations. Would Tehran deem it necessary to give in on the nuclear issue to survive? Or if a hard-line, more security-dominated government emerges, will it try to race toward a nuclear weapon, more convinced than ever of its need?

Despite the fierce crackdown on Iranian protesters in January that left many thousands dead, President Trump continues to encourage the Iranian people to rise up to overthrow the regime.

“Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” he said. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

But it may not go that easily or cleanly, noted Ivo H. Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO.

In February 1991, during the first gulf war, President George H.W. Bush issued a similar call to the Iraqi people to rise up and oust Saddam Hussein.

“They did,” Mr. Daalder noted, “and the U.S. stood by as Saddam’s security forces slaughtered them in huge numbers.”

 

THE NEW YORK TIMES