March 28, 2026

Raphael and the Renaissance of Divine Beauty

 

 

Why is she holding a unicorn?

A little baby unicorn: a foal with soft fur, a snub nose, a smooth muzzle, and a horn like a narwhal’s tusk spiraling up to heaven. The maiden that Raphael painted around 1505 cradles the critter, tender and tame. She’s sitting upright, at a slight angle, in this half-length profile. She’s gazing out and to the side: the same breath-of-life pose in which Leonardo placed a brunette named Lisa a few years before.

But why a unicorn? For status, perhaps: The mythological beast was an emblem of the Farnese family, one of Italy’s grandest dynasties. Or perhaps for marketing. Only a virgin could tame the dangerous unicorn, the legend went, and the wealthy sitter here was probably on the marriage market, advertising her chastity. (Always check the jewelry: a chunky ruby around her neck, but no ring on her finger.)

Look at the hands, though. How the maiden wraps her thumb and forefinger around the beast’s front hoof. The effortless show-off move of the unicorn’s tufted fur brushing her wrist. Virtue, purity, fecundity, charm: It’s as if Raphael is sabotaging himself. The blushing bride-to-be embodies feminine virtues to a degree present only in unicorn land. She is so beautiful she is not real.

ImageA close-up view of a young woman with a small unicorn, sitting with a view of mountains outside.
Only a virgin could tame the dangerous unicorn, the legend went, and the wealthy sitter here was probably on the marriage market.

The “Portrait of a Young Woman with a Unicorn” has traveled from Rome to New York for an exhibition of such sublimity and grace it is hard to square with the cold world outside. “Raphael: Sublime Poetry,” opening at the Metropolitan Museum of Art this weekend, is one of those blockbusters we used to take for granted in the United States — before the explosion of shipping and insurance costs, and less metaphorical explosions too — and, for the next three months, you have the chance to rediscover a Renaissance man who gave painting and drawing, tapestry and architecture, a radiance not reached since ancient times.

The show is a beauty, but not the kind you would chat up in a bar. Raphael’s is a forbidding, imposing beauty: the sort that seems to reflect the divine, and make us look puny by contrast.

A beauty and, if I may borrow for just a second the slang of the Silicon Valley low church, a unicorn itself. “Raphael: Sublime Poetry” took eight years to organize. It cost untold millions. It required five dozen lenders. No American museum, the Met says, has ever presented a full-scale exhibition on this prince of painters, and logistics are not the only reason.

In 1520, after Raphael died on Good Friday at the age of 37, Romans came out for a citywide deification ceremony that ended with his interment at the Pantheon. (“Why be surprised that you died on the day Christ died?” went one rather sacrilegious eulogy. “He was the God of Nature, you were the God of Art.”) For centuries after, his name was the supreme synonym for artistic genius.

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Views from a Met preview for “Raphael: Sublime Poetry.”CreditCredit...

But when classical ideals fell by the wayside, Raphael lost his pre-eminence too. Modern eyes gravitated to the sultry naturalism of Caravaggio, or the secular silences of Vermeer: neither a household name before 1900. Whereas this titan of the Renaissance came to seem just a little too perfect. His numerous sensitive depictions of the Madonna and Child, in particular, receded into Christmas-card staples. Teen tours at the Vatican now hustle through the Raphael Rooms, including the magisterial “School of Athens,” on their way to the Sistine Chapel and the gelato stand.

Reintroducing Raphael to contemporary audiences — our concentration shot, our Bible studies patchy, our palates scorched by sriracha — is the goal here of Carmen C. Bambach, a longtime Met curator. This is the last in a trilogy of shows she has organized of the three most renowned artists of the Italian High Renaissance. A Leonardo blockbuster opened in 2003. A hulking Michelangelo survey ran from 2017-18. (Donatello, the fourth Ninja Turtle, worked three-quarters of a century earlier.)

For the next three months, our critic writes, “you have the chance to rediscover a true Renaissance man who gave painting and drawing, tapestry and architecture, a radiance not reached since ancient times.”

She does not try to make Raphael modern, except for a few unconvincing sallies comparing printmaking to social media. Her strategy is to re-humanize this lapsed god of painting by packing the gallery with drawings: 140 of them, alongside 33 paintings, to show the year-by-year, day-by-day work of a country boy who became the right hand of two popes. We’ll see, I guess, whether these draw the same pilgrims as Leonardo’s nifty inventions or Michelangelo’s brawny saints. For my own part, I left awe-struck, and intimidated too.

Because painting did not look quite so flawless when Raffaello di Giovanni Santi was born in Urbino in 1483. His father painted and wrote epic poetry, but two other influences in central Italy would be even more decisive. One was the court, which the duke of Urbino had turned into one of the most sophisticated and refined on the peninsula: a home for poetry, dance, masques and the patronage required for them. (An earlier son of Urbino is my No. 1 Renaissance man: Donato Bramante, friend of Raphael and architect of St. Peter’s.) Urbino in the late 15th century was a hilltop redoubt of a new humanism, reflected in this show through an architectural fantasia of a geometrically perfect city, not to mention the Met’s slightly campy exhibition design of cutout arcades.

Perugino, “St. Augustine with Members of the Confraternity of Perugia,” circa 1500. On the right, Raphael, “Madonna and Child Enthroned with Saints,” circa 1504. Credit...via Carnegie Museum of Art; via The Metropolitan Museum of Art

The other was Pietro Perugino, in whose Umbrian studio Raphael learned both the fundamentals of painting and the workings of papal and ducal commissions. Looking at master and student side by side, you see how Raphael adopted Perugino’s precise line, his otherworldly clarity. But where Perugino hewed to an older hierarchy — Christ and Mary biggest, the angels and donors smaller; your spiritual significance determines your height — Raphael’s early altarpieces present a shocking new naturalism. Suddenly, the saints and sinners are scaled like humans are. Like they’re in real, tangible spaces: a technique he may have picked up from the new, Netherlandish art that the Urbino court collected in bulk.

He struck out on his own, he made grand altarpieces and smaller pictures for private worship, and at the turn of the 16th century he went up to Florence. All the artists there were talking about a painterly battle royale, as two giants of the trade labored over murals on opposite walls of the Palazzo Vecchio. In this corner: Michelangelo, whose mastery of anatomy and the male nude made the young Raphael jealous. In that corner: Leonardo, hasty, experimental, blasting through a dozen ideas in his sketchbook while Raphael was still working from exact preparatory drawings.

Neither mural survives. But Bambach evokes the influence of these older rivals on the young Raphael through dozens of sketches and cartoons — including an illuminating sequence of efforts to work out the figures in an Entombment, with Greco-Roman space-making and Leonardesque lines. Many famous Raphaels that didn’t travel — the “Madonna of the Meadow” in Vienna, the “Sistine Madonna” in Dresden, the later “Transfiguration” at the Vatican — are represented through drawings of greater or lesser refinement. The show can get very academic in these moments. Specialists are going to delight in fighting over attributions and dates, though you may wonder if you need to see yet another sheet of the Christ child’s stubby thighs. (The catalog, too, is a pitiless thing, with no individual entries for the show’s paintings and drawings; Bambach has written a single giant essay running almost 300 pages.)

Image
Viewers with a round painting, framed illuminated, “The Virgin and Child with Infant Saint John the Baptist in a Landscape (The Alba Madonna.”
“The Virgin and Child with Infant Saint John the Baptist in a Landscape (The Alba Madonna),” around 1509-11.

Yet there are moments of harmony here between painting and drawing, between hand and mind, of such artless magnificence that the world goes thin. Raphael’s vivid “Alba Madonna,” from around 1510, luxuriates in the luscious blues of Mary’s mantle and the geometric balance of its circular composition. When I’ve seen it in Washington, it’s always struck me as flawless but also impenetrable, as perfect circles are.

Here at the Met, though, the “Alba Madonna” appears with an arresting and much more human preliminary study — for which the model for Mary is a young man, presumably an assistant in Raphael’s workshop. Left leg extended, right pulled back. Right arm outstretched, left elbow thrust out. The Mother of God appears ethereal, but the image was built from life.

The real meets the ideal: Portrait of Bindo Altoviti, a debonair young papal banker. Raphael lavished care on his wispy sideburn, lips touched with vermilion.

The touch that makes Raphael’s Madonnas so tender can become provocative, and even lascivious, in his portraits. Facing the “Young Woman with a Unicorn” is another loan from Washington, of the debonair young papal banker Bindo Altoviti, turning his head back to us with androgynous wiles. Again, the real runs right into the ideal: Look at the care Raphael lavished on his wispy blond sideburn, the lips touched with vermilion. Altoviti is moving up, from Rome to Olympus. (Well, when you are young and rich and beautiful, you may as well flaunt it.)

Another classicization is his “Fornarina,” or female baker: a young woman raising a sheer veil to her still-uncovered breasts, in the manner of countless marble Venuses. Scholars assume the subject was Margarita Luti, one of Raphael’s models and mistresses, whose father ran a bakery.

The "Portrait of the Nude Fornarina” has traveled from Rome to New York for “Raphael: Sublime Poetry.”

He was still only 25 when he got to Rome, yet his reputation as a modernizer — plus the connections of Bramante: Urbino boys stick together! — convinced Pope Julius II to invite Raphael to decorate the room that would define his legacy for centuries. That was the Stanza della Segnatura, the first of four Vatican chambers now known as the Raphael Rooms (or just stanze), which the Met tries to evoke with projections at three-quarter scale. They cycle too fast — just 15 seconds per room — and the images appear bleached out, so before you enter the video reproduction, navigate the forest of drawings Bambach has gathered. Blind Homer looks skyward. Adam gazes back over his shoulder. Pythagoras and his disciples are ready to face Christ in heaven. In this room, at this time, where Raphael married the Bible to Greco-Roman antiquity, the past became not just something to emulate but to exceed.

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Raphael painted a suite of four interconnected, frescoed rooms on the second floor of the Apostolic Palace in the Vatican Museums, in the Vatican Palace; a digital video at the Met shows his monumental fresco cycles at about 75 percent scale.CreditCredit...

Like I said, it’s intimidating — and we haven’t even come to the Sistine Chapel tapestries, magnificent visions of the Gospel so lush they drove the papacy of Leo X into bankruptcy. (But when you go broke there is always someone richer. The three tapestries here are second editions, made for the king of Spain.)

But the real challenge, and also the merit, of the Met’s Raphael blowout isn’t its quantity; it’s how it defies modern expectations. The sweet Madonnas and philosophizing Greeks we now find so removed from our time were once, in the early 16th century, endeavors to reinvent everything — ideal visions from “the firstborn among the sons of modern Europe,” as the Swiss historian Jacob Burckhardt called Raphael’s generation.

Image
A close up of apostles with Jesus in a boat supplied with many fish.
Viewing the lush scenery of the late 1540s/early 1550s Flemish tapestry edition of Raphael’s “The Miraculous Draft of the Fishes” from the Acts of the Apostles series, woven in wool and silk. The original was commissioned by Pope Leo X, to be brought into the Sistine Chapel on special occasions.

Because the whole point of the Renaissance, articulated in every stroke and scratch of this exhibition, is that the past could never be reattained, not as it was before. It was only a guide, a model, to live a finer life in your own times. When Plato and Aristotle stare you down at the Vatican, when the Madonna looks as serene as Lake Trasimeno, when a woman with a unicorn promises this world can be better, you are witnessing not antiquity being reborn but human nature itself. Only that rebirth, that inner renaissance, could give a pope the confidence to tear down St. Peter’s, and to let a young man loose on the walls.

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Detail of a painting of the Madonna with two infants holding a strip of parchment with large lettering.
Detail from “The Holy Family with Infant Saint John the Baptist (The Madonna of the Rose),” in “Raphael: Sublime Poetry.”
 
THE NEW YORK TIMES 

 

Sam Kieth, Creator of Surreal Comic Book Series The Maxx, Dies at 63

 A cocreator of Neil Gaiman’s Sandman series, he dreamed up The Maxx as a homeless character in the real world and a superhero in a subconscious realm. It was adapted for an MTV series

 A man in a short-sleeve orange-red T-shirt holds his face in his palm as he stands against a wall of etchings.

 

Sam Kieth, a comic book cartoonist who created The Maxx, a surreal series about characters leading dual lives — in the real world and in a subconscious realm — and who cocreated the popular series Sandman, died on March 15 at his home in Sacramento. He was 63.

His death was confirmed by his wife, Kathy Kieth. He had been diagnosed with Lewy body dementia in 2023.

At a glance, The Maxx, which debuted in 1993 in Image Comics and ran for five years, might have been mistaken for a typical superhero comic, but Mr. Kieth’s bold art aesthetic and exploration of mature themes gave it an adult edge.

At the center of the story is a woman named Julie, a rape victim who creates a subconscious world in which she feels safe. Mr. Gone, a serial rapist who had attacked Julie, can enter that haven. When Julie hits a homeless man in an automobile accident, the man is transformed into the Maxx, who becomes her behemoth protector in both worlds, a creature in a purple and yellow costume who has sharp white teeth and hands with middle digits shaped like claws.

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A cartoon image with the words “The Maxx” and showing a large creature with sharp white teeth, a bright purple and yellow costume and with hands whose middle digits are shaped like claws.
The character The Maxx was a homeless man who, after being hit by a car, is transformed into a behemoth with sharp white teeth and hands with middle digits shaped like claws.Credit...Sam Kieth/Image Comics

MTV adapted The Maxx for a 13-episode animated series in 1995. At the time, in an interview in Wizard, a magazine devoted to the comic book industry, Mr. Kieth explained the general concept behind the series:

“The closest thing I could think of was that it’s Don Quixote, a person stuck in an unpleasant real world who dreams of a world where he has control and power, but keeps returning to unpleasant reality.”

Though The Maxx was Mr. Kieth’s brainchild, he worked with the writer William Messner-Loebs for most of the comic book series, until he felt confident enough to handle the scripting himself.

Image
A cartoon panel featuring a giant purple creature with yellow claws confronting a menacing figure in a black robe.
The Maxx meeting Mr. Gone, a serial rapist. “The closest thing I could think of was that it’s Don Quixote, a person stuck in an unpleasant real world who dreams of a world where he has control and power,” Mr. Kieth said of the series.Credit...Sam Kieth/Image Comics

Mr. Kieth caught early notice for his work in an issue of The Incredible Hulk and for his depiction of Wolverine in Marvel Comics Presents, a comic book anthology series. He was then recruited to Image Comics by the co-founder Jim Lee in 1992.

“Sam had hit big with his rendition of Wolverine in Marvel Comics Presents,” Mr. Lee said in an interview. Wolverine was typically depicted as short, squat and strong. Mr. Kieth’s version of the character was impossibly muscled and had a feral energy.

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“I thought it would polarize the audience,” Mr. Lee said. “Most people loved it because it was so different and original.”

The goal of Image Comics was for its artists and writers to have creator control of their characters and to enjoy the financial rewards. “Sam was the one who lived the dream,” Mr. Lee said. Mr. Kieth owned the character, he had complete creative freedom, and he profited from the MTV adaptation. Mr. Lee added, “I had such admiration and respect for what he did — and a tinge of jealousy.”

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A comic book cover showing an overly muscled, red-outfitted superhero with knives for fingertips.
Mr. Kieth’s version of Wolverine was impossibly muscled and had a feral energy.Credit...Sam Kieth/Marvel Entertainment

Samuel Coleman Kieth, an only child, was born in Sacramento on Jan. 11, 1963. His father, Samuel E. Kieth, was a barber and an aspiring artist, and his mother, Sammie (Robertson) Kieth, was an employment representative for the state of California, among other jobs.

Mr. Kieth, who wanted to be a comic book artist from an early age, dropped out of high school in 10th grade and began phoning comic book editors in New York, asking if work was available, his wife recalled. He married Kathy Frye in 1982, and they worked odd jobs as Mr. Kieth pursued his artistic ambitions.

In addition to his wife, he is survived by his mother.

Mr. Kieth’s first professional comic book credit, published by Comico in 1983, was a 10-page story, which he wrote and drew, about a killer rabbit. He found more regular work on the series Mage, written and drawn by Matt Wagner; Mr. Kieth inked several issues, beginning in 1985.

His first breakthrough came in 1988 with the fantasy series Sandman, written by Neil Gaiman. Mr. Kieth, the artist Mike Dringenberg and Mr. Gaiman together created the series, which went on to critical acclaim.

Mr. Kieth drew the first five issues of Sandman and seemed to be most in his element — drawing strange, misshapen creatures of the night — in issue No. 4, when the main character travels to hell. In that issue, Mr. Kieth drew a two-page spread in which Sandman and Satan are surrounded by a horde of demons.

Image
A comic book image showing multi-eyed and multicolored creatures congregating before a creature standing atop an elevated earthen mound.
One of Mr. Kieth’s spreads from Sandman, a fantasy series he cocreated with Neil Gaiman and Mike Dringenberg.Credit...Sam Kieth and Mike Dringenberg/DC

In 2010, in an interview with Digital Spy, an entertainment news site, Mr. Kieth was humble about his contributions to Sandman. “All I did was draw a guy in a black robe, and they said, ‘Yes, that’s the character,’ so I got the credit for it,” he said.

Mr. Gaiman remembered being with his editor Karen Berger when she made an expensive phone call to Mr. Kieth to offer him the Sandman assignment. “We were in England, and the next thing I know, she’s making an international call to America, which at the time was very fancy,” he said in an interview.

But Mr. Kieth was not easily persuaded.

“I just remember having the strangest conversation with Sam,” Mr. Gaiman continued, “because he’s like, ‘OK, who dropped out? You don’t really want me.’ I could never tell if it was low self-esteem in reality or low self-esteem being deployed as a weapon.”

It ended up being a lucrative gig for Mr. Kieth. Creator credit comes with financial rewards when the property is developed into other media and when the work is reprinted. “We’re still getting royalties,” Kathy Kieth said.

In 1993, Mr. Kieth’s art was featured in a group show at Four Color Images gallery in Lower Manhattan. (A visit to the gallery by Abby Terkuhle, the president of MTV Animation, led her to develop The Maxx for the cable network.)

In 2013, Mr. Kieth won Comic-Con’s Inkpot Award for lifetime achievement, and his work was the subject of a 30-year retrospective at the Cartoon Art Museum in San Francisco.

That same year, his mother asked him to participate in an event at World’s Best Comics and Toys, a store in Sacramento, so that she could watch him interacting with fans.

“He said, ‘Mom, probably only two people are going to show up,’” Ms. Kieth recalled.

The signing began at 11:30 a.m. and ended at 10:30 p.m.

THE NEW YORK TIMES 



 

 

 

When a Not-So-Dark Knight and His Sidekick Saved a Wacky Gotham

Joel Schumacher apologized for “Batman & Robin,” his corny 1997 superhero movie, but thanks to its ice puns and bat nipples, it’s since become an accidental parody worth howling at. 

 

After Tim Burton’s twisted takes on the Batman saga, complete with a repugnant Penguin and a latex-clad Catwoman, American audiences were demanding family-friendly “Batman” movies. At least that’s how the director Joel Schumacher remembered it, he said in a 2017 interview. So he stepped in to deliver — first with “Batman Forever,” in 1995, and then with its 1997 sequel, “Batman & Robin.”

“Batman Forever” was a box-office blockbuster, unseating “Jurassic Park” for the highest-grossing opening weekend. “I just knew not to do a sequel ever,” Schumacher said. But under pressure from Warner Bros. and propelled by his own ego, “Batman & Robin” — a high-energy, lighthearted, live-action comic book — came to be.

It stars George Clooney as a ho-hum Batman (replacing Val Kilmer from “Batman Forever”); Chris O’Donnell, reprising his role as the whiny sidekick Robin; Uma Thurman as Poison Ivy, the saucy star of the show; Alicia Silverstone as Batgirl, a watered-down Cher from “Clueless”; and Arnold Schwarzenegger as Mr. Freeze, a walking — well lumbering — meme.

With expectations high, “Batman & Robin” suffered a dramatic box office falloff compared with its predecessor and was deemed a disaster by critics and audiences. “After ‘Batman & Robin,’ I was scum. It was like I had murdered a baby,” Schumacher said. “I want to apologize to every fan that was disappointed.”

But The Times critic Janet Maslin seemed to pick up on the joke even then, calling it “a wild, campy costume party of a movie and the first ‘Batman’ to suggest that somewhere in Gotham City, there might be a Studio 54.”

It’s that excess that has kept the movie from slipping into obscurity, whether you loved it, have grown to love it or can’t help but lovingly hate it.


ImageA film still shows a woman with neon red hair and with green leaves adhered around her eyes to mimic a mask looks over her right shoulder with a sultry expression.
Credit...Warner Bros.

In particular, Maslin praised Thurman’s performance as the femme fatale eco-terrorist Poison Ivy, correctly calling her the movie’s “most showstopping character.”

Thurman channels Mae West, doling out cheeky double-entendres with swagger and swinging hips. When she delivers a playful strip tease, emerging from a gigantic gorilla suit at a fund-raiser packed with Gotham’s elite — hypnotizing attendees with both her feminine wiles and a sprinkle of pheromone dust — it inexplicably works.

Michael Gough also returned here as the ever-heartwarming butler, Alfred Pennyworth, his fourth and final turn after the Burton and Schumaker films. His inclusion serves as a totem to “Batman” fans, no matter how disorienting the plot.


What Makes It Bad?

ImageA film still shows Mr. Freeze wearing a giant metal suit and holding a large prop gun that resembles a toy. He is bathed in blue light.
Credit...Warner Bros.

Comparing his experiences on both films, O’Donnell once said, “On ‘Batman Forever,’ I felt like I was making a movie. The second time, I felt like I was making a toy commercial.” The truth is, he pretty much was.

“Batman & Robin” was, in large part, a merchandising play that resulted in a movie so safe, it sometimes feels like “Scooby-Doo” meets the Ice Capades. According to a 2005 Los Angeles Times article, toy manufacturers were even invited to sit in on creative meetings.

Accompanying toy commercials hawked branded play-sets, vehicles and action figures, going particularly big on Mr. Freeze. “Ice terror Mr. Freeze launches a chilling strike,” one ad declares. “Blast wing Batman whips his massive cape to cut down the cold criminal!”

Speaking of …


What Makes It Good-Bad?

ImageA close-up of the black Batsuit from “Batman & Robin” showing nipples formed in the material.
Credit...Warner Bros.

Mr. Freeze speaks exclusively in agonizingly cheesy ice puns that have become perpetual internet fodder, prompting rankings, thoughtful reflections and a lot in between.

Some puns apply to whatever fiasco is at hand. Others are shoehorned in for no reason whatsoever. But even a statement as benign as, “All right, everyone! Chill!” can become immortalized thanks to Schwarzenegger’s signature delivery.

And that’s nothing to say of the enduring discourse around the film’s bat-suit nipples. Just last month, in an interview for the SAG-AFTRA Foundation, Clooney took it upon himself to mention them. “I know I was the best Batman!” he jokingly shouted toward the audience, which erupted in laughter. “You know Batman needed nipples!”

It’s eye-popping how prominently — like, really prominently — the nipples feature, starting with close-up shots in the opening montage. Schumacher said the idea was to make the suits more anatomical, inspired by Greek statues and medical-book drawings.

“Such a sophisticated world we live in where two pieces of rubber the size of erasers on old pencils, those little nubs, can be an issue,” he continued. “It’s going to be on my tombstone, I know it.”

THE NEW YORK TIMES 

 

 

 





March 8, 2026

The Brazilian Director Who’s Up for Multiple Oscars

 

 Kleber Mendonça Filho wearing glasses.

 

 

For Kleber Mendonça Filho, filmmaking is an act of both provocation and preservation. Mendonça was born in 1968, in the early years of a ruthless military dictatorship—a time when cinema, like much else, was harshly constrained. His mother, Joselice Jucá, was a historian who studied Brazil’s abolitionist movement, and she taught him that filling gaps in the cultural memory was a way to expose concealed truths. In Mendonça’s work, memory functions as a tool of defiance.

His relationship with film is inextricably linked with his home town, Recife—a port city where attractive beaches and high-rise developments coexist with sprawling favelas and rampant crime. In his youth, Mendonça was fascinated by the city’s grand cinema palaces. He carried a Super 8 camera to the tops of marquees and shot dizzying images; he spent hours in projection booths, learning the mechanics of how films reached the screen. Over time, Mendonça watched those theatres fall into decline, an experience that he likened to being aboard a ship as it wrecked. But even as Recife lost its allure, he made the city a fixture of his films—a way of vindicating its place in history. His first narrative feature, “Neighboring Sounds,” takes place on a street where he lived as a child, a setting that he spent years documenting. Later, he made “Pictures of Ghosts,” a documentary about Recife told largely through its cinemas.

In Mendonça’s work, political commentary coincides with art-house aesthetics and elements borrowed from genre movies—science fiction, Western, neo-noir. Questions of justice and truth often play out through dark comedy. “Neighboring Sounds,” an unflinching portrait of class hierarchy in Brazil, came out in 2012 and was widely acknowledged as one of the best films of the year. It was followed in 2016 by “Aquarius,” which depicts a woman’s crusade against wealthy developers seeking to demolish her seafront home. “Aquarius” was celebrated at festivals around the world, winning prizes everywhere from Sydney to Cartagena. As Mendonça’s international reputation grew, the hard-right President Jair Bolsonaro took office in Brazil, and Mendonça used his platform to denounce the country’s democratic erosion.

His latest film, “The Secret Agent,” is set in 1977, during the era of military rule. The protagonist is a scientist named Armando Solimões, played by Wagner Moura, who has been fending off the efforts of a government-linked businessman to take control of his lab in Recife. Now Solimões is on the run, scrambling to get his young son out of the city before hitmen can catch them. The film is both an indictment of authoritarian repression and an absurdist thriller, with set pieces involving a reanimated human leg and the hulking corpse of a tiger shark. Mendonça uses these surreal flourishes to reimagine the country of his youth—a place where gruesome crimes were committed by people determined to obscure the evidence. I recently sat down with him to talk about “The Secret Agent,” which has been nominated for Best Picture and Best International Feature at the Academy Awards, and about the power of reclaiming the past. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

I want to start with Recife, the setting for this film. How does your home town fit into the history of filmmaking in Brazil?

A hundred years ago, in the silent era, just before sound came, a small group of filmmakers in Recife collaborated to make thirteen feature-length films. Only six survived. The media has always been concentrated in São Paulo and Rio, two thousand kilometres away in the southeast—not only cinema but money, radio, and television. Recife is in the northeast. It had one of the first law schools in Brazil, and many names from literature and music. But not much happened from the nineteen-twenties until the nineteen-seventies, in terms of filmmaking.

In the seventies, local artists began to use Super 8 cameras to make films, and that also became an interesting moment in filmmaking. Many of those films have survived. Then, in the nineties, something really interesting happened: we had a music scene which became very strong. That’s when I was leaving college, and it really pushed me toward developing my own projects. In the past thirty years, we could draw up a list of maybe twenty-five filmmakers, men and women, who are part of a very interesting film scene in Recife. Their films are all very personal and unusual, but they also managed to establish a communication with audiences—not ever becoming blockbusters, but becoming a thing.

How has Recife traditionally been portrayed in films?

We almost never saw Recife on the screen. There was one film from 1983, shot partly in Recife—a historical film by Tizuka Yamasaki, a filmmaker from the south. But that was it, really. I grew up watching telenovelas made in Rio, and of course Hollywood films. So the connection between reality and the projected image simply did not exist in terms of Recife. But, in 2002, when I was in the Rio de Janeiro International Film Festival, I saw a film by a filmmaker called Claudio Assis. For the first time, I saw Recife in wide-screen and color, and I thought, I’m finally seeing the city I know.

After that, more films were made in Recife. “Pictures of Ghosts,” the film I did before “Secret Agent,” it’s really like a family album of the city, taken from so many films—from films done a hundred years ago to Super 8 films done in the seventies, maybe some newsreels done in the fifties. And then, in the past thirty years, so many shorts and features have been shot in Recife. That’s when we began to develop what I call a microclimate of local audiences really, really supporting local films. They would play all the local films and there would be lines around the block.

Many years ago, you were among those moviegoers in Recife.

My mother was the real cinephile. I was always being taken to the cinema as a young child. We spent almost five years living in England, where my mom did her Ph.D. research, and England played an important part in my life, showing me different filmgoing experiences. But then I went back to Recife in 1986. I was eighteen, and I rediscovered the city in a completely different way. The downtown was peppered with movie palaces.

You studied journalism and became a film critic. If you had an interest in films, why not make them?

There were no film schools in Recife at the time, and journalism brought me closer to film. From the first day, I got to meet new friends who were also cinephiles, and they dreamed of making films and writing about film or music. And then, slowly, I drifted toward an idea of cinema. I also used the equipment in the school to develop little short video projects. Today, you can make something interesting with a telephone. But, at that time, I needed a Super VHS editing suite with a camera, which I didn’t have. So that’s how I began.

Tell me about a typical early short.

“Lixo nos Canais” was about television—my own take on Brazilian television at the time. Not very sophisticated, but it had some acid. It was kind of sarcastic about the state of television and how it humiliates people, how it’s prejudiced, how it portrayed women and Black people. Grotesquerie was the norm.

Was there a moment when, after years as a critic, you decided that you were ready to make your first film?

I was very happy as a critic, because I wrote a lot. I saw a lot of films and my work had a readership. Of course, I made many people very unhappy, because I would write about Brazilian cinema. I had a youthful desire to propose changes, which is something that I do not regret. I think I was quite tough on a number of films.

What needed to be reformed, in your view?

The diversity of subject matter, the way films were shot, the complete absence of any cinema outside of São Paulo and Rio. Upper-class directors making films about very impoverished regions and communities—the classic themes, hunger and violence in the favelas. You could tell the filmmakers were not really familiar with those things. They just made the films.

So all of that came without a filter. And then I became quite known—and respected and despised—in some circles. Slowly, especially with the arrival of digital, I began to really make my short films, and I spent about ten years making short films, which became very successful. I always had someone saying, “Yeah, this is really cool, but when are you gonna make a real film?” And, in my mind, a short film is a real film. I once wrote that some features should open for short films, rather than the reverse.

But then something happened: I saw “Do the Right Thing,” by Spike Lee. And that really did something to me, because I had never seen an American film, a New York film, with new faces, a new way of looking at people in society. It was set in one block, one street. And this is something that I found very attractive. That’s probably when I began to think about a story. I finally sat down in 2007 or 2008 to write “Neighboring Sounds.” Sure enough, there was a lot of “Do the Right Thing” in “Neighboring Sounds”—and, of course, a lot of myself.

Talk about how working as a critic has informed your filmmaking.

I never compartmentalized criticism, filmmaking, going to the cinema. In my mind, it was all the same thing: watching films and writing about them and trying to understand what culture is trying to say. I think that probably explains why I was so hard on some films. Because I really think that each film or book is a reaction to life in society. So I think trying to understand what artistic expression or even the industry is trying to say is an interesting way of understanding cinema. And for me, that’s doing cinema. There was never a boundary for me.

You’ve described memories of your mother, the historian, returning home with a Panasonic tape recorder and a box full of cassettes. What did her craft teach you about oral history?

She talked a lot about how interested she was in listening to people. Let’s say that you’re going to write a story about a hotel. Normally you would interview the manager, because the manager is in a position of power. She would interview the guy at the door and the waiters and the cleaning lady. And then maybe, if she had time, she would interview the manager.

This is something that I only came to realize when I was making “Pictures of Ghosts,” because I really allowed myself to actively remember my mother. I found this amazing piece of television from the archives, where she gave an interview about history and oral history. She wasn’t a filmmaker, but her interviews were very much like films, because, once you sit down and listen to them, it’s very much like a documentary. She did a series of interviews, from 1979 to 1981, with the surviving filmmakers from the nineteen-twenties. These interviews, they’re precious. They are voices from the past.

I remember one day—it must have been 1980 or 1981—she came home and said, “I just interviewed Jota Soares, the filmmaker.” And I was just a kid. I was into films, so I was a little impressed, but I had no idea of what it meant. When I listened to the interview, four years ago, it was so moving. That’s one of the ideas in “The Secret Agent,” the idea that there is somebody listening in the future.

How did listening to those recordings contribute to the making of “The Secret Agent”?

It’s everything. It’s happened three times in my life as a screenwriter, twice with my own projects: I tried to write a script—great idea, great starting point, but I couldn’t make it work. My heart wasn’t in it.

I found the heart for “The Secret Agent” making “Pictures of Ghosts”—the power of things that survive and are kept in archives. Because the archive is somebody’s proof of life. When you hear a voice recorded in 1977, that person was alive in ’77. She was in love. She had dreams or desires, or she had to deal with the traffic. Sometimes, listening to these old tapes, it’s so moving, because sometimes you hear a truck in the background. Oh, that’s a truck. How many people were in that truck? What was it carrying?

And then things just get more complex because my mother died quite young. She died at fifty-four. So there was this whole thing of someone who’s not here anymore, but her voice still is, and her work still is.

Probably the strongest feeling of time travel that I have ever felt is making films and working with archives. Because time travel, as far as I know, doesn’t really exist. There is no DeLorean, no time machine. But, when you’re holding a cassette tape, it’s the actual cassette tape that was recorded in 1977 or 1974. I felt that a number of times when I went to cinematheques. You go into the restoration department, see the big scanner and the negative, and you go, “That’s the camera negative that was on the set in 1951.” It’s a historical artifact.

I worked for seven years on “Pictures of Ghosts”—a film that does not have a script. It was all driven by discoveries. This wonderful friend, a researcher who has been working with me, Karina, she calls one day and says, “I think I found 35-mm. images of Janet Leigh and Tony Curtis on the Duarte Coelho Bridge.” And I go, “I think I have the film.”

All of those finds, these discoveries, they put me in the right state of mind to write “The Secret Agent.” A lot of “The Secret Agent” comes from the power of history. And the power of history has nothing to do with the way people remember history.

You met Wagner Moura at Cannes when you were a critic. And you said that the part of Armando was written for him.

It was written for him out of my admiration for him as an actor, as a person. Wagner is a good man. We happen to share many points of view on Brazil and on life. And we don’t have a problem expressing ourselves. I find myself with a microphone and somebody asks me a question, like, “What do you think of Bolsonaro?” And I say, “I don’t think he’s a good idea for Brazil.” That becomes a huge controversy—because major newspapers at the time were reluctant even to describe Bolsonaro as “far-right.”

Wagner has had his fair share of backlash and attacks from the right. And so have I. You can’t make a film and shut the fuck up—say, “Nothing to add.” “The Secret Agent” takes you many different places, but it’s very firmly grounded in historical reality. Yes, there is a cat with two heads, but that is Brazil in 1977, from the décor to the clothing to the cars to the atmosphere. So you build on realism, and then you can blur the lines on other elements.

At the beginning of the film, you describe that historical era as a “period of mischief,” which I thought was an interesting choice, considering that the word “dictatorship” is never mentioned in the film. Why?

It’s a literary way of beginning the film. I really like the classic credit roll in the beginning of a film, or maybe a card in the beginning. “Casablanca” has that. “Star Wars” has that. Of course, with Star Wars, you’re being welcomed into a completely crazy, woo-hoo world that came out of George Lucas’s mind. But I think that for a film that takes place in 1977 to start once again with the card, “There was a dictatorship taking place in Brazil”—I thought that I should really avoid that and instead grossly underplay, almost in a poetic way, the seriousness of what we were going through.

The Portuguese word is . . .

Pirraça.” It’s a wonderful word, quite old-fashioned. It usually means someone who’s teasing someone else, in a mean-spirited way. Someone who has the power to play a prank on you. And that prank might go overboard.

I never planned the script for “The Secret Agent.” I did not have a map. I’ve seen some by colleagues and friends—it almost looks like algebra. The script wrote itself, in a way. I was sometimes surprised at some of the twists and turns that it took.

No outlines?

There were no outlines. The script stemmed from the desire to dramatize some situations and also the desire to shoot those scenes. I was salivating at even the thought of shooting the whole sequence in the registry office, with all those public servants, the wooden floors and the telephones. I just love that whole universe.

You’ve said that the film isn’t about memory—it’s about forgetting. And, in this conversation, you’ve suggested that we live in a post-truth era. How is that collective amnesia playing out in Brazil?

Unfortunately, it’s a very strong part of Brazilian life. TV has traditionally belonged to one group—the Globo group. And they have dictated, in a way, behavior and perception of truth, of politics. Globo always supported the military dictatorship, right from the beginning. In 1984, when people were fighting for general elections for the first time after the coup, Globo ignored almost a million people in downtown São Paulo. And that’s the way that society is framed, I think, in Brazil. My mother being a historian, she was always telling me where to look. But many people are not like that. And I think that we migrated from just manipulation of power to something that is completely out of control.

In a country that, for political reasons, has erased, or tried to forget, or tried not to remember important aspects of history, the mere fact of remembering something might land you an accusation of being a communist or a radical, just because you are saying, “But that’s not how it happened.” And I think there is a strong resistance against reality.

It’s happening in the U.S. It’s happening in Brazil and in Europe. There is a group of society, usually from the far right, and they are fighting reality every day. They wake up in the morning and go to sleep fighting reality. We are now entering Philip K. Dick territory—memory implants. You don’t actually have to implant a chip. You can actually choose whatever reality you want to choose.

In Brazil, we had Bolsonaro saying that COVID was nothing—“Get off your asses and go to work today. It’s nothing. If you’re an athletic type, like I am, nothing will happen to you.” It was a very dark period we went through. I’m just happy that it’s over. The right seems to be lost now. Bolsonaro is in jail. And it feels we are making more sense now as a society.

Under Bolsonaro, there was a concerted effort not to have your film submitted to the Academy.

Back in 2016, there was a clear act of sabotage against “Aquarius.” The month we premièred at Cannes in competition, the Ministry of Culture had been extinguished, because Dilma Rousseff was impeached. It was all a cynical coup d’état. [Rousseff, a former guerrilla turned politician, had been elected to succeed the longtime leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. She faced corruption charges that her supporters argued were politically motivated.] The voting in Congress was broadcast live on a Sunday afternoon—one of the most grotesque moments in Brazilian history, because it really was about the anger from the right at being shut out of power through democratic elections since 2002. Bolsonaro himself, as a congressman, dedicated his vote for impeachment to the guy whose unit tortured Dilma in prison when she was twenty-two.

So, a few weeks later, we went to Cannes with “Aquarius.” [Kleber began to cry, then continued.] Sorry. We went to Cannes, and we did a protest on the red carpet—just holding bits of paper. We went into the theatre. Two hours and twenty minutes later, we came out, and we understood that there was a firestorm in Brazil because of the protest.

The far right just became very mad at me. And then the people who took power, who extinguished the Ministry of Culture, they were the ones who got to pick which Brazilian film to submit for the Oscars. Friends and colleagues withdrew their films in solidarity, saying there was only one film to be picked that year. And then they picked the most unknown, most mysterious film. It was a scandal.

How has “The Secret Agent” been received? Not just in Brazil but in countries like Spain, where people are also still grappling with questions of historical memory.

I went to San Sebastián, and I talked to cinephiles and critics. They feel that it’s very strong for the Spanish, particularly because of Franco. Spain still has many families that would rather not talk about what happened.

And many mass graves.

Yeah. It’s a very strong theme in Spain. It’s a very strong theme in Chile. Dilma was the one who put together a truth-and-reconciliation committee, which Bolsonaro immediately hijacked when he came into power.

Brazilian society isn’t particularly pragmatic. Some societies will say, “This is what we have to do, and we will do it.” Brazil is more, like, “Oh, I don’t know, let’s just move on and let’s not talk about unpleasant things.” I’ve heard that in family circles. I’ve heard that from politicians, and I heard that from Bolsonaro. But he didn’t put it as nicely as I just did. He said, “Only dogs look for bones.” ♦

THE NEW YORKER  

 

March 2, 2026

Big Change Seems Certain in Iran. What Kind Is the Question.

 A crowd of people, many wearing head coverings. One person cries out while holding a picture of a bearded man.

 Experts say that Iran’s clerical rulers may be too deeply entrenched for Iranians to topple them, and that the U.S. and Israeli strikes risk setting off deeper radicalization or violence.

  

 The death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a watershed moment in the 47-year existence of the Islamic Republic. The scenes that followed — throngs of Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate, others turning out to grieve — signal the deep uncertainty about what comes next.

There are now three key questions: How will protesters respond to President Trump’s call to take over the government? Can Iran’s authoritarian system survive? And could the attack unleash a chaotic battle for power?

Mr. Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have made public appeals to Iran’s people, arguing that they have offered them a historic opportunity to topple their brutal authoritarian government. How they envision an unarmed population facing down a heavily armed, ideologically driven security force is less clear.

Though it has been only two days of strikes, some regional experts are skeptical that an aerial campaign alone could weaken Iran’s government enough that Iranians could bring it down with protests.

Nonetheless, Iran is headed toward a transformative moment, said Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

“Some kind of change will happen in the system,” he said. “But in which direction? We don’t know.”

ImagePeople standing silhouetted against a night city skyline. Two hold phones with bright screens.
Iranians in Tehran took to their phones as news spread that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed.Credit...The New York Times

In some ways, Iranians are ever more defiant after facing a brutal crackdown on nationwide antigovernment protests in January, in which security forces killed thousands. As the violent repression subsided, the risks were still high even before the bombardment began. Yet students still protested and held sit-ins, and the families of slain protesters used their memorial services to voice dissent.

After the authorities confirmed Ayatollah Khamenei’s death in the attack, many Iranians dared to celebrate publicly — but not to the point of risking bloodshed.

Arian, a resident of a suburb near Tehran, described seeing people “honking in the streets, shouting chants from windows.” Like all people interviewed inside the country, he asked to withhold his full name for fear of retaliation.

On Sunday morning, Arian said, he saw people dancing and singing in the streets — until they noticed the arrival of armed members of Iran’s Basij, the volunteer militia force aligned with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. “When the Basij showed up, everyone got scared and quickly scattered,” he said.

Even under aerial bombardment, Iran’s domestic security apparatus was still making a show of force. Basij forces, estimated to be around one million strong around the country, have already been mobilized around the capital.

“The brutal killing of protesters in January suggests domestic unrest will be met with an iron fist,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “This time under far harsher wartime conditions.”

Some airstrikes have begun to target Basij and intelligence headquarters, but experts are divided as to whether airstrikes can inflict enough damage to weaken a deeply entrenched and complex network of security forces across such a large country.

“The problem is these are very multilayered targets,” said Abdolrasool Divsallar, an Iran expert at the Catholic University of Milan. “You hit one, but there are so many others. I am not sure how long it can be sustained, munitions wise.”

Image
A cityscape under a cloudy sky with a large plume of dark gray smoke rising between buildings.
Smoke rising over Tehran on Sunday following strikes.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Even as strikes wiped out several of Iran’s top political and military leaders, official statements went to great lengths to show the system was prepared for the shock and still functioning.

After Ayatollah Khamenei’s death, Iranian officials announced that the government would follow the constitutional framework for selecting the country’s next leader, and that a temporary leadership council would be formed.

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council who is seen as the de facto leader behind the scenes, stressed that idea in televised comments urging unity after the ayatollah’s death.

“Throughout history, the Iranian nation has faced even greater challenges; even the Mongols plowed through the entire country, yet the people stood firm and defended their land,” he said. “Such martyrdoms make people resistant and steadfast.”

But the system could undergo a transformation from within. Mr. Larijani, seen as a pragmatist, is the type of figure observers say could potentially strike a deal with Washington now that Iran’s more ideologically driven supreme leader is gone.

Some ordinary Iranians said that such a deal, if accompanied by an easing of international sanctions on Iran, may be palatable to many residents who have suffered through so many months of instability and a collapsing economy.

“Most people aren’t chasing deep meaning,” said Payman, 45, a businessman in Tehran. “They just want a normal life: family, work, small goals. If that becomes possible, a lot of people might stop pushing for bigger change.”

But there is also the possibility Iran’s new leaders would turn the state in the opposite direction — making it even more radical. “The risk is that the more hard-line figures emerge,” Mr. Divsallar said.

The fact that the leadership change was brought about by American and Israeli attacks increases that possibility, he said. “That works completely against what people wished for,” he said.

Experts point to several appointments that could tip a transition in this direction.

Image
A crowd on a street, with one woman holding a poster of a white-bearded individual. A building mural in the background depicts similar figures and vibrant flags.
A woman holding a photo of Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Two of the members of Iran’s interim leadership council are hard-liners. One of them, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, is from Iran’s Council of Guardians, a powerful group of jurists. The other is Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the head of the judiciary. The third member, President Masoud Pezeshkian, is a moderate, but had been largely sidelined before the war.

Another bellwether is the reported appointment of Gen. Ahmad Vahidi to lead the Revolutionary Guards.

“He’s an incredibly brutal person. So I think they’re not going to hesitate to use extreme violence,” said Mr. Sabet, of the Geneva Graduate Institute.

Beyond toppling or transforming Iran’s current system is the possibility that the war unleashes chaos in a country of 90 million people that borders seven countries.

There are many potential opponents who could use violence to challenge a weakened state. Some ethnic minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, already have armed opposition groups.

Mustafa Hijri, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iran, said that his organization was part of an alliance of groups from Iran’s ethnic minorities, and that among them were parties that “when necessary, may engage in armed resistance as part of their struggle.”

Officials from two Kurdish groups in exile, who asked not to be identified, said they were planning on trying to restart operations inside the country, aiming to encourage an uprising in Iran’s Kurdish region.

Even before the war started, many Iranians were bemoaning the increasingly polarized state of the country in the wake of the brutal crackdowns on the protests.

The government retains an ideological and religious support base that, in the current war, would be highly motivated to fight back against perceived threats. That raises the possibility of internal fragmentation and violence that spills beyond Iran’s borders.

On Sunday, Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi, an influential cleric in Iran, called for jihad against Israel and the United States, according to remarks published in the semiofficial Mehr news agency.

All of these factors create a growing risk of a dangerous insurgency should the state collapse, similar to the insurgency that broke out in Iraq after U.S. forces invaded it in 2003, said Ms. Geranmayeh, the analyst.

“This is a holy war for them — and they seem willing to burn down the country and region before surrendering,” she said. “If this air campaign succeeds in toppling Iran’s leadership, years of chaos probably lie ahead for the country and its people.”

the new york times 

 

 

Iran’s Regime May Survive, but the Middle East Will Be Changed

 A large portrait of a bearded man with glasses is carried through a dense crowd. Many people wear dark clothing; some have head coverings.

 A badly weakened Iran will no longer intimidate or threaten its neighbors in the same way. The regional impact could be comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

rlanger

 Iran’s supreme leader may be dead, but there will be another. Its slain military commanders will be replaced. A governing system created over 47 years will not easily disintegrate under air power alone. Iran retains the capacity to strike back against American and Israeli airstrikes, and the war’s trajectory is unclear.

But the Islamic Republic, already weakened and unpopular, is now further diminished, its power at home and in the region at one of its lowest ebbs since its leaders took power during the revolution that overthrew Iran’s American-backed shah in 1978-79.

Even if the regime does not fall, which remains the stated aim of President Trump, this massive attack is likely to have strategic consequences in the Middle East comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed on Saturday morning, maintained a visceral antagonism toward Israel and the United States, which he consistently called “the Great Satan.” He built and financed a regional set of proxy militias that surrounded Israel and shared his hatred of it. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, the Houthis in Yemen — all served both to attack Israeli interests and protect Iran itself.

Iran built up its missile program and enriched uranium to nearly bomb grade, even as it denied ever wanting a bomb. It became a regional power so strong that Sunni leaders in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf sought to keep good ties with a Shia Islamic regime that also threatened them.

Iran’s decline began two years ago, with Israel’s tough and sustained response to an invasion by Hamas from Gaza. It accelerated when Israel eroded Iran’s air defenses, defeated Hezbollah and profited from the Syrian revolution that overthrew Bashar al-Assad, another ally of Tehran.

But now, with the ayatollah’s death and intense destruction from the air, Iran’s regional sway has ebbed further, with uncertain consequences that will play out over months and even years.

Image
An urban landscape with many buildings under a blue sky. Several large, dark gray smoke plumes rise high into the air.
Strikes over Tehran on Sunday. Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

“The Islamic Republic as we know it will not survive this,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based research group.

“The Mideast won’t be the same again,” she said. “For 47 years the Mideast has been living with a hostile regime and a destabilizing force that it has tried to first isolate and then manage.”

Now, she said, the regime might be dismantled and something new and different might emerge. That leadership may turn out to be even less friendly to Washington, particularly if dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Whoever takes charge, Iran will be badly weakened in the medium term, more inward-looking, and focused on political competition, internal security and economic chaos, Ms. Vakil said.

In the coming days, however, Iran may spread more short-term chaos as its current leadership tries to bring an end to the war while saving the regime.

Iran will try to rapidly increase the cost for Israel, the United States and its Gulf allies “to force them to back down before this succeeds in destabilizing the regime,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Increasing its attacks on Arab countries in the gulf is risky but may be Iran’s best chance to shorten the war — since it could prompt the Arab world to pressure the U.S. and Israel to end their campaign.

“Iran’s aim now is to absorb U.S. and Israeli attacks, hold its position and signal expansion of war, and wait for worried regional actors to mediate a cease-fire,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, on social media. “They expect that if Trump does not get a quick win then he will look for an exit, and negotiations afterwards will be different.”

Image
A tall, dark skyscraper at night shows a large orange fire and smoke from its midsection. Lit buildings and palm trees are in the foreground.
A burning building hit by an Iranian drone strike in Bahrain on Saturday. Credit...Reuters

Iran’s proxies across the Mideast could also come to Iran’s defense, increasing the price of an extended war, according to Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, a research institution.

“If Hezbollah fully engages from Lebanon, if militias strike U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, or if the Houthis escalate in the Red Sea, this stops being a bilateral conflict and becomes a regionwide war stretching across the Middle East,” Mr. Vaez said. A wider war would have considerable longer-term impact on oil prices and inflation, especially if Iran can shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key international shipping route.

But in the longer term, an Iran that is wrapped up in its own domestic problems — trying to avoid elite fragmentation and consolidate a new leadership or even move toward a more consultative one, with less clerical influence and more power sharing — will not have the energy or the resources to meddle in the region. That could open up new opportunities for Lebanon and the Palestinians, as it has already done for the Syrians.

It leaves Israel ascendant, making it even more of an ineradicable fact in the region that the Sunni nations must accommodate. A new and more moderate government could take office in Israel after elections later this year. With Iran defanged, it may feel it has the mandate to build on the cease-fire in Gaza and negotiate seriously with the Palestinians, under pressure from Washington and the Saudis.

Image
A collapsed building surrounded by debris. People in dark uniforms, one with a gun, search through the rubble, while another person inspects inside a damaged section.I
sraeli security officials inspecting the ruins of a building hit by an Iranian strike on Tel Aviv on Sunday. Credit...Amit Elkayam for The New York Times
 Israel itself would prefer regime change, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear, but would be content, analysts say, with a divided, broken and chaotic Iran wrapped up in its own problems, like Syria is now.

Presuming there is no revolution, a reconstituted Iranian government must still grapple with a powerful Israel and a United States it cannot trust. The current regime has made nuclear enrichment a key element in its efforts to cement regional power and deterrence. And it has refused to change course, even as that display of persistence seems to have brought it closer to destruction than any other policy, whether that be supporting terrorism abroad or massive repression at home.

It is unclear if even a more moderate government would make new concessions over its nuclear program under the pressure of war. It is also unclear if any Iranian leader would feel able to trust President Trump, who tore up President Obama’s nuclear deal in 2018, and now has bombed Iran twice in the middle of ongoing negotiations. Would Tehran deem it necessary to give in on the nuclear issue to survive? Or if a hard-line, more security-dominated government emerges, will it try to race toward a nuclear weapon, more convinced than ever of its need?

Despite the fierce crackdown on Iranian protesters in January that left many thousands dead, President Trump continues to encourage the Iranian people to rise up to overthrow the regime.

“Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” he said. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

But it may not go that easily or cleanly, noted Ivo H. Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO.

In February 1991, during the first gulf war, President George H.W. Bush issued a similar call to the Iraqi people to rise up and oust Saddam Hussein.

“They did,” Mr. Daalder noted, “and the U.S. stood by as Saddam’s security forces slaughtered them in huge numbers.”

 

THE NEW YORK TIMES