O mistério do futebol

 

 

· Braulio Tavares

O mundo começa a girar, cada vez mais depressa, no carrossel da Copa do Mundo. Quem um dia já chorou com futebol, quem um dia já foi feliz com futebol, quem um dia já ficou bêbo com futebol, não tem remédio senão girar também, girar, girar, girar.

Eu vejo uma Copa do Mundo com olhos diferentes da maioria das pessoas. Eu não vejo Copa para torcer pelo Brasil. Gosto do Brasil, gosto do jeito que o brasileiro joga futebol, gosto do significado que o futebol tem na vida do povo.

Muita gente não gosta de futebol, assim como muita gente não gosta de música, e muita gente não gosta de poesia. Não há problema. Sejam felizes com as coisas que gostam. O que não falta no mundo são possibilidades de ser feliz com pouco.

Eu gosto. O futebol tem algo de balé, no que fazem os jogadores. E tem algo de xadrez, no que fazem os técnicos.

Como todo esporte competitivo, ele envolve um poderoso elemento “agonístico”, a determinação de superar um adversário. E com isto afirmar a própria superioridade, ainda que seja uma superioridade momentânea, num aspecto totalmente específico. Ou uma superioridade apenas simbólica.

Vencer, vencer, vencer. Se não houvesse um impulso assim, tão poderoso, o futebol (o esporte em geral) não teria o poder que tem. Seria algo como a Arte, por exemplo. Na Arte não existe o conceito de “vencer”, não existe vitória nem derrota. Essa coisa de dinheiro, mercado, prêmios, festivais, etc., são penduricalhos extemporâneos, nada têm a ver com a Arte.

Dias atrás, tive uma breve participação numa “mesa redonda” na Feirinha do Livro do Largo de Santa Rita, centro do Rio de Janeiro, ao lado de colegas que se reuniram para comentar a antologia Era Uma Vez Flamengo (Ed. Faria e Silva, 2025), organizada por André Salviano. Falamos não apenas sobre o nosso clube, mas sobre esse fenômeno curioso que é a paixão futebolística.

No meio do debate, os colegas lembraram o livro de Sérgio Rodrigues (que também participa da antologia), O Drible. Nele, Sérgio sugere que grande parte da grandeza do futebol brasileiro se deve ao rádio.

Num tempo em que não havia televisão, era ao pé do rádio que milhões de brasileiros se reuniam para escutar os jogos dos grandes times, os jogos de Copa do Mundo. E os locutores, tão épicos, tão hiperbólicos, passavam para o Brasil inteiro a imagem de craques absolutos travando embates mitológicos, memoráveis.

Os jogos talvez nem fossem essas cocacolas todas, mas os radialistas transformavam qualquer batalha ganha numa Austerlitz, qualquer batalha perdida numa Waterloo. Qualquer gol era gol de placa, qualquer defesa era uma defesa impossível, qualquer drible era um drible desmoralizante.

Eles se esgoelavam. E a gente precisava agarrar o rádio de pilha com as duas mãos, para não perder nada.

Isso instilava em milhões de meninos, Brasil afora, a noção de que o futebol brasileiro era povoado por craques, e que cabia a eles (que já se exercitavam na bola de meia, na bola de plástico, na bola de couro) superar esses craques.

E era verdade. Entre as noites mais épicas da minha vida pré-televisão estão aquelas em que depois do jantar eu fazia correndo o dever-de-casa porque por volta das nove da noite tinha jogo do Flamengo, ou jogo do Sport, ou jogo de Pelé. (Todo brasileiro acompanhava Pelé, sem necessariamente ser torcedor do Santos.)

Os jogos do Treze, ça va sans dire, eu via roendo unhas na arquibancada.

A maior ficção futebolística do Brasil não está no romance, está na transmissão esportiva, está na crônica, na reportagem, no memorialismo... Está na não-ficção. Que é ficção, em última análise, porque ao contar como foi um jogo contamos o jogo que era para ter sido, nas proporções épicas que nosso desejo e nossa imaginação lhe atribuem. Querem saber os fatos crus, os obstinados fatos? Ora, leiam a ficha técnica do jogo, e boa noite.

O futebol, seus clubes, seus triunfos, suas tragédias, são um universo que atrai um feixe heterogêneo de impulsos primitivos da nossa mente. Impulsos animais, impulsos intelectuais, impulsos espirituais, impulsos simbólicos... Cada pessoa torce de acordo com o que é.

Quem tem uma teoria interessante sobre fenômenos dessa natureza é o grande Kurt Vonnegut Jr. Em seu livro Cat’s Cradle (1963) ele alude a uma religião imaginária, o Bokononismo, cheia de símbolos e rituais. A certa altura ele explica dois dos seus conceitos mais importantes, o “karass” e o “wampeter” (o qual, aliás, não tem relação com o nosso trêfego Vampeta, ex-Corinthians, ex-Seleção).

Diz Vonnegut:

Um wampeter é a base de um karass. Não existe karass sem wampeter, Bokonon diz, assim como não existe uma roda sem eixo. Um wampeter pode ser qualquer coisa: uma árvore, uma pedra, um animal, uma idéia, um livro, uma melodia, o Santo Graal. Seja o que for, os membros do karass giram em torno do seu wampeter no caos majestoso de uma nebulosa espiral. É evidente que as órbitas dos membros do karass que estão em volta do wampeter em comum são órbitas espirituais. São as almas que giram, não os corpos.

(Cama de Gato, São Paulo: Aleph, 2017, trad. Livia Koeppl)

Mais claro do que isto é impossível. Uma torcida é um karass, um clube de futebol é um wampeter. Nossas almas ficam girando em torno do clube amado, no ciclo recorrente dos jogos, dos campeonatos, das infinitas mutações dos times que se sucedem com aquela camisa.

Amamos o time e detestamos o presidente ou o técnico, amamos o time e odiamos o centro-avante ou o goleiro, e nossa alma se aquece nessa fadiga-do-metal ao ser perpetuamente torcida para um lado, para o outro, para a vitória heróica, para a derrota trágica, para os títulos consagradores, para os humilhantes rebaixamentos (quando é o caso).

É só no futebol? Não.

[ knicks 004 ]

Nesta semana da Copa do Mundo, acompanhei pela imprensa e pelas web-TVs o delírio de um karass gigantesco, a torcida dos New Yorks Knicks, o mais popular time de basquete novaiorquino.

Os Knicks não ganhavam o campeonato da NBA há exatamente 53 anos. E nesta semana, numa decisão emocionante de cinco partidas, derrotaram por 4x1 os San Antonio Spurs.

Cada karass é diferente de todos os outros. Na Copa do Mundo, a Seleção de Curaçao acaba de jogar sua primeira partida de Copa, e perdeu de 7x1 para a Alemanha. O que sentem os membros do karass dessa Seleção é qualitativamente diferente do que sentem os membros do karass da Turquia, que perdeu de 2x0 para uma Austrália tradicionalmente inferior.

Cada caso é um caso. Tudo é diferente. Na Natureza, podem existir dois átomos iguais, duas moléculas iguais. Daí para cima, tudo é diferente.

(foto: Dave Sanders)

Os New York Knicks fizeram uma jornada histórica. Quando eles venceram as duas primeiras partidas da série decisiva, no começo deste mês, torcedores começaram a chegar do mundo inteiro, desembarcando em Nova York, movidos pela esperança de ver seu time ganhar pela primeira vez. (A última vez que os Knicks chegaram à decisão foi em 1999, perdendo justamente para o mesmo San Antonio Spurs.)

Pais trazendo os filhos, filhos trazendo os pais. “Você não pode perder isto.”

Foi apenas o terceiro título na história do clube. E um clube que representa a cidade de Nova York, talvez a mais autoconfiante e mais arrogante cidade do mundo, a Roma Imperial dos tempos modernos, a cidade-planeta de Trantor, imaginada por Isaac Asimov. A cidade que Frank Sinatra cantou assim: “Se eu conseguir vencer aqui, venço em qualquer lugar”.

(foto: Angelina Kansaris)

Nestes dias eu estava vendo na Netflix uma série-documentário de Martin Scorsese entrevistando uma figura que curto bastante, a jornalista e escritora Fran Leibowitz. É uma novaiorquina típica, uma mulher sarcástica, inteligente, sem-papas-na-língua, desbocada, que falando me lembra às vezes uma mistura de Marília Gabriela com Maria da Conceição Tavares.

(Fran Leibowitz)

A série celebra a cidade de Nova York, descrita e comentada por uma de suas críticas e defensoras mais ferrenhas, e se intitula Pretend It Is a City. “Faça de Conta Que É Uma Cidade”. Porque falta a Nova York (dizem seus críticos) um pouco de humanismo. Não é uma cidade acolhedora, amistosa. A cidade e sua população vivem em guerra. Os novaiorquinos soam às vezes como alguém que está sacrificando a vida para salvar uma coisa que odeia.

A arrogância top de Nova York provavelmente convivia mal com o fato de que seu time de basquete, que é o esporte mais importante dos EUA. não conseguia ser campeão. O título de agora foi apenas o terceiro em toda a sua história. E isso talvez os tornasse (sei lá, estou especulando) mais azedos, mais rudes, mais cactáceos.

(CNN International)

Pode ser que este título de campeão tenha o poder de despertar no karass da própria cidade (que não é exatamente o mesmo karass do time de basquete) um pouco daquele generosidade-sem-cálculo que é privilégio das pessoas felizes com o que têm na vida.

E me emocionei com esta crônica de Matt Flagenheimer (CNN International) ao descrever as comemorações do título, que entraram pela noite de sábado e madrugada de domingo, quando os Knicks cravaram sua quarta vitória (94 x 90) em outra virada espetacular diante dos Spurs.

Então é assim que a gente se sente.

É gente dando risada, gente chorando, rodando na rua, tendo convulsões, saltando do alto nos braços dos outros, buzinando em caminhões, desobedecendo à lei, soprando trompetes, badalando chocalhos, cantando fora do tom, acendendo charutos, virando a noite – e lembrando que é preciso lembrar disso tudo para sempre, como se fosse possível um torcedor do Knicks poder esquecer esta noite.

É gente agarrando estranhos até tirar o fôlego, esmurrando capô de táxi no delírio do trânsito, batendo mão-aberta na mão de crianças nos ombros dos pais, batendo mão-aberta na mão de adultos nos ombros de adultos, trepando em postes e em sinais de trânsito e em andaimes de construção, para levantar mais alto a bandeira do time, pegando cones de trânsito e enfiando na cabeça por causa da cor, que é laranja.

São as lágrimas cobrindo as calçadas em volta do Madison Square Garden, por onde os novaiorquinos de muitas gerações carregaram seus desapontamentos e suas derrotas e seus corações partidos e seus lamentos de desta-vez-doeu-demais.

Diz a crônica que, ao amanhecer do domingo, com a cidade em pandarecos, cheia de bêbados sentados no meio-fio, um vendedor de camisetas comemorativas do título ainda empurrava seu carrinho pela Sexta Avenida, gritando: “Lembrem-se!... Lembrem-se de hoje!...”.

Um grito que me trouxe à memória as cenas apocalípticas de Mad Max: Fury Road (George Miller, 2015), em que guerreiros punk-kamikazes, antes de se atirar para a morte, berram para os demais: “Witness!... Witness!...”

Testemunhem.

Vejam o que vão ver agora, porque nunca mais verão de novo, mas vocês são os privilegiados que viram a História acontecer diante dos seus olhos. Os fatos, os obstinados fatos, irão desaparecer nas águas do tempo, e tudo que restará deles será o testemunho de vocês. Será a crônica.

 

BRAULIO TAVARES SUBSTACK 

 

Our writers’ World Cup 2026 predictions

 

 

Winners? Breakthrough player? Best host nation? Shocks?

 

 

There are just a few days to go until the 2026 World Cup kicks off in Mexico City. We’ve been through team analysis, stadium guides and player profiles, and now it’s time for our writers to give us their predictions for the six-week extravaganza of soccer.

The men to watch, the games not to miss, the surprises, the shocks, and how the three host nations — the United States, Mexico and Canada — will get on. Eleven of our writers have their say.

But first, meet the panel…

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• Elias Burke, football writer who has reported on the Premier League, Champions League, Championship, MLS and international football
• Henry Bushnell, senior writer covering his third World Cup (and second men’s edition)
• Carl Anka, Manchester United reporter since 2020 and writer on international football. Member of Talk of the Devils
• Felipe Cardenas, senior writer based in the U.S., with a focus on football across the Americas and beyond, covering his second World Cup
• Jack Lang, UK-based football writer who will be covering his second World Cup
• Oliver Kay, football writer for The Athletic since 2019. Will be covering his sixth World Cup and also went to the 1998 tournament as a fan
• James Horncastle, globetrotter no longer confined to Italy. An Italophile internationalist, he has lost track of which country he’s in
• Paul Tenorio, senior writer who has covered American soccer since 2007, including the USMNT and MLS at The Athletic since 2018
• Tamerra Griffin, global women’s soccer writer covering her second World Cup; was a foreign correspondent before pivoting to sport
• Joshua Kloke, Canadian soccer reporter. Has covered Canadian soccer’s rise since 2016, committed to finding the best pizza and beer this summer
• Melanie Anzidei, covering her second World Cup for The Athletic, former collegiate soccer player turned newspaper reporter turned sports writer.

Winner

Burke: As much as I’d love to say England, France are surely favourites. Results rarely go as predicted, but if France win their group, they might not face a side on a similar level until a potential semi-final against Spain.

With so much attacking firepower, we can expect them to squeeze past the European champions there and reach a third successive final, where Kylian Mbappe will lead France to his second World Cup triumph.

Anka: When the draw was made, I was backing Spain. They have Lamine Yamal. They have Rodri, who is slowly getting back to his best. Their calmness on the ball should mean they don’t tire too much in the North American heat.

This is the moment — Yamal to pip Mbappe to the trophy and declare himself the leader of the post-Messi-and-Ronaldo era.

Kylian Mbappe in France trainingFranck Fife/AFP via Getty Images

Cardenas: It’s England, and it’s finally coming home. And no, Tom Hardy’s character from Mobland is not looking over my shoulder as I write this.

To win the World Cup, a team must suffer, have luck on their side and improve as the tournament progresses. England possess the attributes, plus they have a manager in Thomas Tuchel who understands the players.

Lang: Spain. A few injuries have chipped away at my conviction, but they still have the best balance — and the fewest weaknesses.

They have a settled system that suits their players and can thrive in the conditions: their midfield controls matches, which could be incredibly important in severe heat. And, in Yamal, they have a player who can win a tough game with a single moment of genius.

Kay: France have the strongest squad. They also still have players and a manager who won the World Cup in 2018, and others who came agonisingly close to retaining it in 2022.

If I’ve got a nagging doubt, it stems from the 2024 European Championship, when they only scored four goals in six games. Also, the pressure on Mbappe, as captain and star player, is huge.

Horncastle: Spain.

I was at their games against Italy, France and England at the last Euros and three things stood out.

They were egoless. They excelled, as always, in keeping the ball — when England equalised in the final, Spain confiscated possession until they found a late winner. Last but not least, they were quicker and more direct than in the past, with the scintillating Nico Williams and Yamal running all over defences. Together, it made Spain irresistible.

Tenorio: I am enamoured with the talent in France’s squad. Spain have been so strong, but it’s hard to overlook a team featuring Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola, Marcus Thuram and Rayan Cherki.

Kloke: Spain — it’s an obvious one, but when a team have zero holes, tournament-winning experience and an easy path to the quarter-finals (provided they win Group H), the answer feels like a tap-in.

Griffin: It should be France. They have the strongest starters and bench in the tournament.

Anzidei: I hate to admit that France is a tournament favorite and can win it all. They have the roster and the depth. Mentally, they have players who know the difference between winning it all and being just one penalty kick away from a repeat on the world stage. That combination is crucial.

Bushnell: France is my pick, but to avoid redundancy… Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo’s ego could make this look silly in a few weeks, but their midfield is absurdly good. Unparalleled. It can carry them through the tournament. And Roberto Martinez has evolved into an elite international coach.

Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams and Victor Munoz of Spain, who many see as favouritesFlorencia Tan Jun/Getty Images

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Team who will surprise us

Burke: I watched Ivory Coast thrash South Korea 4-0 in March, where I was reminded just how talented they are in attack. So talented, in fact, that Manchester United forward Amad may not be a guaranteed starter.

Keep an eye out for teenage sensation Yan Diomande, who moved to the United States at 15 and was playing high-school soccer four years ago. He could be in line for a big-money move to a Premier League club if he can translate his impressive form for RB Leipzig in Germany to the World Cup. The Athletic reported last week that Liverpool had stepped up their pursuit of the 19-year-old.

Anka: Senegal. The legal kerfuffle over the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) final, along with a 3-2 friendly defeat to the USMNT, has taken some gloss off the Lions of Teranga, but they are a footballing powerhouse in waiting.

Group I is the closest thing we have to a ‘Group of Death’ (facing France, Iraq and Norway) in this tournament, but Senegal should fare the best of the African nations this summer.

Cardenas: It feels blasphemous to mention Brazil here, but that’s how mortal the record five-time world champions have become. That will change this summer.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side will get better, stronger and more confident with each passing match. It will start with a commanding win against Morocco on Saturday. While many people expect Brazil to underachieve, I believe they will find their form in the same setting that saw them lift the 1994 World Cup trophy.

Lang: Ecuador were the story of South American qualifying, finishing second behind Argentina (and ahead of Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay) despite a three-point deduction for a rules violation in the previous World Cup cycle.

Their success was almost entirely down to their defensive solidity — they remarkably conceded just five times across their 18 matches. They won’t win many awards for aesthetics, but they’ll take some beating.

Kay: If we’re talking about a team who could go much further than widely expected, perhaps to the quarter-finals or even beyond, then I’ll go with Jack and say Ecuador, who have a core of proven competitors and exciting young prospects. There’s always this idea that they’re mediocre once they’re away from the altitude of Quito, but they haven’t lost a game in almost two years.

Horncastle: Norway made a big impression on me in qualifying. They scored 37 goals in eight games. Erling Haaland accounted for 16 of them. Sure, their group isn’t the easiest. OK, it’s also their first World Cup appearance since 1998, so the squad isn’t used to big tournaments. But they’re stacked up front, Martin Odegaard had a successful season at Arsenal and Antonio Nusa, Jens Petter Hauge and Oscar Bobb provide depth.

Norway can threaten with Erling Haaland and Martin OdegaardFredrik Varfjell/NTB/AFP via Getty Images

Tenorio: Mexico. I really don’t think we’re talking enough about El Tri.

They are going to have a fantastic home-field advantage playing at altitude at Estadio Azteca, with the fans backing them and making it an extremely tough environment. If Mexico win their group, they will have the chance to also play two knockout games at home. That in-stadium advantage won’t go away if they make it to a quarter-final in Miami. This might not be the strongest Mexico side ever, but they could be an extremely tough ‘out’ for any opponent.

Kloke: Switzerland. We’re talking solid, structured tournament soccer here. In European qualifying, only England (zero) conceded fewer goals than their two.

Griffin: For the African teams who regularly appear in World Cups, I’m no longer surprised when they emerge from the group stage and through the early knockouts. But Cape Verde might be one of those teams that immediately captures the hearts of neutrals and could catch their opponents off-guard.

A respectable result against Spain would boost their confidence against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay and might see them make it out of their group.

Anzidei: Dare I say Argentina? There are so many naysayers. Captain Lionel Messi is playing in his last World Cup. Many will say he is not the same Messi who carried the national team to glory in Qatar, but his leadership means he does not have to be. Julian Alvarez and Enzo Fernandez stepped up previously. I’m excited to see who in this next generation does it this time.

Bushnell: A team who could surprise us and win the whole thing? Colombia. A team below the tiers of true contenders who won’t get me accused of homerism? Ivory Coast. Their talent is immense, and their 2-1 friendly win against France last week is evidence that they can give Germany and Ecuador problems in Group E.

Team who will disappoint us

Burke: Spain may struggle to replicate their excellent level from Euro 2024. Yamal may not be fit for the start of the tournament, while Williams, who was electric in Germany two years ago, has experienced a stop-start season. Ditto Dani Olmo and Rodri. They still have the talent for a deep run, but I would not be shocked if they failed to progress past the quarter-finals.

Anka: World Cups are more magical when Brazil look brilliant, but this may be the first tournament where they are not among the favourites. The five-time winners courted Ancelotti for a long time, but he cannot magically fix everything. Brazil will be OK, but are unlikely to make a deep run in the tournament. I long for the day when they are brilliant again.

Cardenas: Norway has one of the biggest names at the World Cup in Haaland. It has a very capable playmaker in Premier League winner Odegaard. But Norway hasn’t been under the stress of a World Cup since 1998. I believe the magnitude of the occasion, the summer heat and the physical toll that creates will lead to a major disappointment. Norway is a dark horse team for some. I see potential for an underwhelming tournament.

Lang: I don’t expect a complete disaster, but I cannot see Argentina getting close to defending their title. Lionel Scaloni has some fantastic options in attack, but Messi is not the player he was and the defence looks incredibly fragile.

Kay: At risk of being arrested for treason, I don’t have a great feeling about England. I’m just not convinced they have really taken shape under Tuchel yet. They might find balance and momentum as they go, like when they reached the semi-finals under Gareth Southgate in 2018, but it needs something (and not just Harry Kane) to click.

Horncastle: I’m with Jack. Four years ago, France were the first World Cup holders since 2006 not to go out in the group stage. The revamped format provides enough places that Argentina should make it through the knockouts, but the squad is more or less the same as the one that put everyone through the wringer last time round. People forget how touch-and-go it was for Argentina in Qatar. They lost their opening game to Saudi Arabia and needed to come through a penalty shootout with the Netherlands in the quarter-finals.

Alexis Mac Allister, Fernandez and Alvarez all broke into the team mid-tournament in Qatar, injecting much-needed freshness and verve. Where is that going to come from this summer?

Tenorio: I’m tempted to say England. If they win the group, they could face a showdown with Mexico in Mexico City in the round of 16. That game will be a test for any opponent. If Argentina win their group, they could face a tricky round-of-32 game against Uruguay (or Spain) in Miami.

Kloke: Argentina has failed to impress of late. They’re spending a lot of time in oppressively hot cities, too. I don’t see a repeat for the defending champions, which I suppose constitutes a disappointment.

Griffin: Argentina have not played particularly enriching friendlies in recent months, which included March fixtures against Zambia (5-0 win) and Mauritania (narrow 2-1 win). They were fueled by the desire to realize the dream of a Messi World Cup win in 2022, but without such a passionate target, they might deflate.

Will Messi and Argentina disappoint?Tim Warner/Getty Images

Anzidei: I want to have high hopes for Brazil. At last summer’s Club World Cup, the Brazilians rallied behind their favorite clubs, and I am so excited to see what the turnout will be like in East Rutherford for their opener against Morocco — but I’m expecting the Moroccans to come out on top.

Bushnell: It’d be Brazil if not for Don Carlo. Instead, I’ll go with Belgium. If you can contain Jeremy Doku, they look vulnerable. Egypt, Iran and New Zealand might represent a soft group, but I don’t think they’ll make much noise in the knockouts.

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Host nation who will go the furthest

Burke: The USMNT’s 3-2 win over Senegal will be a huge confidence booster. Perhaps their group isn’t as straightforward as it has been made out, with potentially tough matches against Paraguay, who earned as many points as Brazil in South American qualifying, and Turkey, but the U.S. have the most talent and the highest ceiling among the co-hosts.

Anka: My heart wants to say Mexico. It would be great to watch El Tri have a good tournament, and it’s a real shame the last game at Estadio Azteca comes in the round of 16.

My head says USMNT. They have the greatest squad depth, and coach Mauricio Pochettino has already shown us how he’ll use the cooling breaks to feed players extra tactical information for that extra edge.

Cardenas: Mexico was embarrassed at Qatar 2022 after failing to advance from the group stage. Four years later, at home and in front of a football-crazed nation, the stage is set for them to surprise.

Lang: I don’t think Mexico are going to win over many neutrals, but I’ve watched them a couple of times recently and was pleasantly surprised. Coach Javier Aguirre is old-school, but there are some talented youngsters — Gilberto Mora, Brian Gutierrez, Armando Gonzalez — who can provide some spark in front of a solid defence. Given their group is a shade easier than the one the U.S. find themselves in, they’d be my pick.

Gilberto Mora, 17, can help Mexico spring a surpriseFrederic J Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Kay: Mexico is the obvious, and probably the right, answer. The group stage has been relatively kind to all three host countries: one or two tough opponents, but an opportunity to progress. I hope all three reach the knockout rounds. The further the hosts progress, the better it is for the ‘feeling’ of the tournament.

Horncastle: Tough one. The USMNT have the most talent and the best coach of the three host nations. But the last two years have been distinctly underwhelming. If it clicks and Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest are firing, Weston McKennie rediscovers the form he showed before his contract renewal with Juventus and Christian Pulisic’s performance against Senegal is an unexpected sign of things to come, then the U.S. are my pick.

Tenorio: I don’t like that this is becoming the theme of my predictions, but I’ll say Mexico. I think they reach the quarterfinals. I could see the U.S. getting there, but the safest bet is the last 16 for Pochettino’s men.

Kloke: In the interest of typical Canadian peacekeeping: every host nation gets bounced in the round of 16. I can see the U.S. succumbing to mounting pressure. I can’t see Mexico winning more than one knockout game, in part for the same reason. And while Canada has the moxie to get out of their group, the round of 16 will present formidable opponents.

Griffin: The U.S. can go further than most think, but Mexico, the host country slightly less burdened by expectations but just as fired up to impress, will go further. (Maybe this is influenced by my inner child who fan-girled over Guillermo Ochoa in his earlier Club America days.)

Anzidei: Compared to the other host teams, Mexicans are fluent in football. The passion for the sport already exists there. El Tri will be fueled by its fans. They may just have a magical run because of it.

Bushnell: The U.S. The vibes are good. The path through the knockout bracket is potentially undaunting. As I’ve said all along, this USMNT absolutely could get grouped, but could also make a semifinal. A quarterfinal is entirely realistic.

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Breakthrough player

Burke: I watched Norway dismantle Sweden 3-1 this week and was very impressed with Nusa. The 21-year-old winger played with speed and attacking purpose every time he received the ball, driving at defenders and trying to make something happen. He was linked with a move to the Premier League before joining Leipzig last summer — there is every chance he will be back on the radar of the biggest clubs in Europe after catching the eye for a dark horse contender.

Cardenas: The football world is going to find out very quickly about 17-year-old Mora. The midfielder will be one of Mexico’s most important players. Mora is truly a joy to watch. Aguirre uses him as a playmaker with freedom to roam near the opponent’s penalty area. His football is mature for his age and he glides by defenders like a young Andres Iniesta. Mora will be linked to every major European club this summer.

Anka: Bosnia and Herzegovina will win over a lot of neutrals thanks to a pair of brilliant teenage wingers. Kerim Alajbegovic will likely start on the left, and the 18-year-old jumps off the screen. He makes the sort of decisive actions in and around the penalty box that are typically mastered in your mid-twenties. He’s two-footed and loves skinning a full-back. Expect him to be linked with a move to the Premier League before the tournament is done.

Lang: Rayan. He probably wouldn’t have been in Brazil’s squad had Chelsea’s 19-year-old Estevao not picked up an injury, but there’s every chance he seizes the opportunity. He is only 19, too, but he is fast, physical, direct and clearly very confident. He may not be in Ancelotti’s starting XI against Morocco on Saturday but don’t be surprised to see him play his way into the team by the knockout stages.

Kay: I’m going to echo Felipe and say Mora, who illuminated last year’s Under-20 World Cup. I don’t know how many games he’ll start, but he is certain to catch the eye.

Horncastle: One of the Turkish boys: Arda Guler or Kenan Yildiz. It was a pleasure to watch them at Euro 2024. Guler, in particular, showed so much personality, demanding the ball from much older team-mates. Yildiz is the silkiest of dribblers.

Guler and Yildiz could star for TurkeyAhmad Mora/UEFA via Getty Images

Tenorio: I’d say Mora, and my answers have become an insanely pro-Mexico space.

Kloke: Shockingly, I am going with a Canadian. There will be more globally-recognized players breaking through, but the editors let me hang around because I (think I) know the Canadian squad well, so… Ismael Kone. At his best, the midfielder blends smoothness and power, making him one of the most distinctive players ever to come out of Canada. He dominated while at Sassuolo in Serie A and feels poised to be an important piece of Canada’s attack.

Griffin: Senegal’s Iliman Ndiaye comes alive when he dons his nation’s crest. In the Africa Cup of Nations six months ago, he dazzled along the flank with his silky dribbling, and now that he’s on the world stage, I expect him to gain fans and professional suitors.

Anzidei: Injury concerns have lingered ahead of his potential World Cup debut, but I’m excited to see 21-year-old Nico Paz, the youngest player on Argentina’s roster.

Bushnell: Diomande. Many in Europe and Africa already know the 19-year-old Ivorian winger. The whole world will in a month.

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Golden Boot winner (top goalscorer)

Burke: For an outside bet, what about Romelu Lukaku? He is incredibly prolific on the international stage with 90 goals in 126 caps for Belgium, who have a relatively kind group with Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. At 33, Lukaku is not the goalscorer he used to be, but he comes alive in a Belgium shirt and has never had any problem ‘stat-padding’ against weaker nations.

Anka: It’s not an exact science, but Golden Boot winners are typically strikers who take the penalties on teams that reach at least the quarter-finals. They tend to score most of their goals in the group stage, putting the weaker sides to the sword, before perhaps picking up an assist or two in the knockout games to help with a tiebreaker.

Congratulations to England’s Kane, who won the 2018 World Cup’s Golden Boot thanks largely to a hat-trick against Panama in the group stage. He’ll face them again in 2026, along with a Ghana side missing their two strongest centre-backs due to injury. Ooft.

Cardenas: Mbappe will run away with the Golden Boot, but walk away without his second World Cup trophy. France’s attack is dreamlike, providing Mbappe with plenty of opportunities. He also takes France’s penalties.

Lang: No prizes for originality, but Mbappe is the standout. France should go deep, and he is as close to a guarantee of goals as there is.

Kay: Since Gerd Muller in 1970, no player has scored more than eight goals in a men’s World Cup. But the expanded tournament — more games and, potentially, more of them against mediocre opponents — raises the possibility of getting beyond that figure. Part of me wonders whether Ronaldo might do it with five goals against DR Congo and four against Uzbekistan. Ultimately, my answer is Mbappe, but there’s so much potential for flat-track-bullying this summer.

Will 2018 Golden Boot winner Kane do it again?Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Horncastle: If Argentina confound my prediction and do well, it’ll either be down to Alvarez getting hot, like he did at the previous  World Cup four years ago, or Lautaro Martinez transferring his 2024 Copa America top-scorer antics to this tournament. Martinez is close to a guarantee of 20 goals a season at Inter. His reputation outside of Italy is hurt by Alvarez taking his place in Qatar, but Martinez scored the decisive penalty in the shootout against the Netherlands, keeping Argentina and Messi’s dreams of winning the World Cup alive.

Tenorio: Haaland. I could see a couple goals in the group stage against Iraq and even Senegal if their defensive form is as bad as it was against the U.S. in Charlotte. A lot of picks for Norway to disappoint, though, so maybe this prediction does, too.

Kloke: Kane, right? Take a very winnable group for England, add in an easy path into the final eight and finish it off with expertise on penalties and he is your guy.

Griffin: Norway are unlikely to win this tournament (though they were on my shortlist of teams that will pleasantly surprise), but Haaland is not going to leave his first World Cup empty-handed.

Anzidei: Preaching to the choir, but Haaland. I expect him to leave his mark on this summer of soccer.

Bushnell: Waaaay too many obvious picks and groupthink here! I’ll go with Mikel Oyarzabal, who’s probably going to start up top for arguably the tournament’s best team, between two excellent wingers. He’ll almost certainly go deeper in the tournament than Haaland. He’ll get more service than Kane. In his past 10 matches for Spain, dating back to March 2025, he’s scored 11 goals. How has nobody else even mentioned him?!

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Golden Ball winner (best player)

Burke: While Crystal Palace fans are keen to stress that Olise was outstanding at Selhurst Park, his star has reached another level at Bayern Munich, where he is now considered one of the best players in the world. Having not featured for France at a major tournament before, Olise will end the summer as one of international sport’s household names.

Anka: On July 19, football crowns Yamal as the best footballer in the world.

Cardenas: Kane’s fabulous form with Bayern this season will continue. He’ll lead England to the promised land (meaning New Jersey on July 19) and strut away from the 2026 World Cup as its MVP.

Lang: Yamal is clearly a strong candidate but equally, this could be Spain team-mate Pedri’s big coming-out party. He is a sublime player, capable of controlling the tempo but also of shoving a knife through opposition defences. Spain’s midfield will win it for them and Pedri, 23, will be the leading man.

Kay: This tournament could go one of two ways for Mbappe. Either he enhances his legacy as one of the greatest footballers of the modern era or, like many top players before him, he struggles under the burden of his nation’s hopes and expectations at a World Cup. I’m leaning towards the former.

Horncastle: I’ve been lucky enough to watch Yamal in the flesh a few times. Nobody has a greater wow factor. He does things that make you grab the person next to you in disbelief.

Tenorio: Olise. My favorite player to watch in the world. Every time he’s on the ball, you think something special is going to happen.

Kloke: Olise. One of the most in-form and dynamic players in the world on a team poised to make a deep, deep run.

Michael Olise, set to star in North AmericaFranck Fife/AFP via Getty Images

Griffin: Vitinha’s game might be quieter with Portugal than Paris Saint-Germain, but this is his moment.

Anzidei: Yamal. It may take some easing into the tournament to avoid injury, but the 18-year-old will meet the moment. I have no doubt.

Bushnell: Bruno Fernandes. Or Vitinha. Or Joao Neves. Together, they’re going to boss this tournament, and one will win the prize on behalf of all three.

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Player clubs will wish they’d signed before the World Cup

Burke: There is already a tug-of-war between Premier League clubs for Elliot Anderson, following an outstanding season for Nottingham Forest. Their owner Evangelos Marinakis already values him at over £110million ($150m), and that’s without Champions League experience or an international tournament under his belt. If, as looks likely, Anderson is still a Forest player when England kick their World Cup off on June 17, that valuation could rise by another £20m with an impressive showing.

Cardenas: PSV’s Esmir Bajraktarevic will have a big role for Bosnia. In March, the 21-year-old’s no-look penalty eliminated Italy from the World Cup play-offs and made him a national hero. He is Wisconsin-born and earned one senior cap for the USMNT, after appearing for their youth sides, but decided to represent his parents’ birth country. If Bajraktarevic emerges as one of Bosnia’s key players, he’ll have some suitors, most likely from Serie A.

Anka: When he emerged as a teenager, Takefusa Kubo was nicknamed ‘the Japanese Messi’ for the way he glides across the pitch. Now 25 and part of the strongest Japan squad in a generation, the Real Sociedad winger could power his team to the round of 16 (and possibly beyond).

Lang: Can Uzun. Turkey aren’t short on exciting young attackers but Uzun, who plays for Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany, is skilful, smart and incredibly graceful — the perfect summer fling of a playmaker. Expect some transfer buzz around the 20-year-old.

Kay: Johan Manzambi is a 20-year-old Swiss midfielder who caught the eye during Freiburg’s run to the Europa League final, and has the kind of skill set that could really stand out.

Horncastle: Carl name-checked him earlier: Alajbegovic. I was in Zenica for Bosnia’s play-off final against Italy. When the 18-year-old came on, he glided about the pitch and played with a rare elegance.

One to watch: Kerim AlajbegovicBill Barrett/ISI Photos via Getty Images

Tenorio: If we go with a USMNT tilt, it could be Folarin Balogun. The 24-year-old had 13 goals for Monaco in France’s Ligue 1 this season and another five in the Champions League. If he bangs in goals for the U.S., maybe it will draw Premier League interest for the Arsenal academy graduate.

Kloke: Again, you’re reading my answers because you want to learn about the Canadian side. So it has to be 20-year-old centre-back Luc de Fougerolles. Right, I can hear you: who? The Fulham academy graduate was on loan to Belgium’s Dender last season. Canada’s back line has been hit by injuries and their coaching staff started him in the Copa America third-place game when he was still a teenager and had played just one (one!) professional club game.

Griffin: Liverpool will be wise to sign Diomande before he pops off at this World Cup. The Leipzig winger dazzled against France in Ivory Coast’s friendly win last week, and his stock will continue to rise.

Anzidei: Seconding Felipe with Bajraktarevic. As heartbroken as I was after Italy’s catastrophic failure to qualify for the World Cup (yet again), the 21-year-old scored the match-winning penalty with such ease on the world’s biggest stage. Given his Wisconsin roots, I can see him becoming a darling of sorts among American fans and casuals.

Bushnell: Oli’s shout for Manzambi is a good one. Another is Jordan Bos, the 23-year-old Australian left-back who was excellent for Feyenoord this season. He’s going to turn heads with his defending and his attacking.

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The game I cannot wait to watch

Burke: France vs Senegal. I’m hoping for a repeat of one of the World Cup’s greatest giant-killings, when Senegal beat the defending champions and their former colonial rulers 1-0 in the first game of the 2002 finals.

Cardenas: Colombia vs Portugal. The sea of yellow at Hard Rock Stadium. Luis Diaz and Colombia’s flair versus Portugal’s ball-dominant attack. The winner of Group K will be on the line. The loser will likely face a daunting path to the semifinals.

Anka: My parents are Ghanaian. I was born in London. Felipe will attest to how happy I was when Group L was finalised. I regret not buying tickets for the ‘Danny Welbeck Derby’ on June 23.

Lang: Mexico vs South Africa. The U.S. is hosting most of this World Cup’s matches, but its southern neighbour gets the tournament up and running. The Azteca, 1pm local time, the colour and vibrancy of the Mexican support, the travelling South African fans… I cannot foresee the atmosphere being anything less than incredible.

The Azteca will host the opener between Mexico and South AfricaCarl de Souza/AFP via Getty Images

Kay: My first one: Argentina vs Algeria in Kansas City on June 16. It’s my first opportunity to watch Messi in the flesh since he left Europe for Inter Miami three years ago. And there’s always the feeling that the holders are vulnerable in their first game — as Argentina (beaten by Belgium in 1982 and Cameroon in 1990) know well.

Horncastle: I can’t wait for Brazil-Scotland in Miami. Less as a re-run of the tournament’s opening game from 1998, more for the prospect of Scott McTominay adding to his aura. His role in Napoli’s scudetto last year and spectacular goal against Denmark have elevated the 29-year-old. I would love it if McTominay produced one of the moments of this World Cup.

Tenorio: Colombia-Portugal. It’s going to be an insane atmosphere in Miami and it sets up well for some entertaining soccer.

Kloke: Germany-Ivory Coast in Toronto. My grandparents came over on a boat from Germany generations ago and instilled a fandom for their national team that hasn’t left the family. So much so that my seven-year-old son will be going to his first World Cup game to watch Germany. My man’s eyes get wide just thinking and talking about it. I’m choosing to pierce through all the ugly noise that surrounds the tournament and remember what it’s like watching your first World Cup as a child. What a rush. Maybe something happens during the game and he’ll latch onto the sport and tournament for good. It happened to most of us once. It’s a good, and pure, feeling while it lasts. It’s too soon to spoil it for him.

Griffin: Brazil and Haiti are playing on Juneteenth. If you know, you know.

Anzidei: The final. No matter who is in it. East Rutherford is my hometown – and whether I’m watching from my place and hearing the sounds of the match from down the road, or lucky enough to be inside the stadium, it will be a monumental moment in the history of my small town. All because of the sport I’ve loved my whole life. I hope the area around the stadium comes alive after that final whistle. I’ll certainly be there, soaking it all in.

Bushnell: Iran in Los Angeles (against both New Zealand and Belgium). It’s going to be an incredible spectacle, in so many ways.

THE NEW YORK TIMES

 

 

Marjane Satrapi, Artist and Author of ‘Persepolis,’ Dies at 56

 

 

 

By Amelia Nierenberg and Ségolène Le Stradic

 Marjane Satrapi, the Iranian-French author whose graphic novel series “Persepolis” introduced millions of readers to the struggles of ordinary Iranians during the turbulent years around the Islamic Revolution, has died at 56.

The office of President Emmanuel Macron of France announced her death in a statement on Thursday, but did not specify where, when or how she died.

“Her passing marks the loss of a leading figure in French culture and a freedom-loving artist whose work carried a universal message and earned her immense international acclaim,” the statement said.

With the publication of “Persepolis” in the early 2000s, Ms. Satrapi became one of the best-known exponents of a form of graphic novel — influenced by Art Spiegelman’s “Maus” — that combined political history and memoir.

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The first volume of an English translation of “Persepolis,” Ms. Satrapi’s graphic memoir, was published in 2003, a few years after the French original.Credit...Turtleback Books

The protagonist, Marji, was depicted living through some of the most difficult years of Iranian history, closely mirroring Ms. Satrapi’s own life.

Both author and character were born in Iran in 1969. Both were about 10 when the Shah was overthrown. Both lived through the rise of the clerics and the horror of the Iran-Iraq War, and both left the country at 14 to study in Austria.

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A New York Times review of the book said it “dances with drama and insouciant wit,” its inky black-and-white drawings modeled on contemporary comics and Persian miniatures.Credit...Tristan Fewings/Getty Images for Sotheby's

In 1994, Ms. Satrapi moved to Paris, where she wrote the “Persepolis” series. The books were published in France from 2000 to 2003; the first volume of an English translation was published in 2003, and the second volume was released a year later.

Millions of readers bought the books, which became a popular school assignment and among the widest-read works to explore the interior lives of modern Iranians. The series was adapted into a 2007 film that was nominated for an Academy Award for best animated feature.

“Persepolis,” the author Fernanda Eberstadt wrote in a New York Times review of the book, “dances with drama and insouciant wit,” its inky black-and-white drawings modeled on contemporary comics and Persian miniatures.

Not quite two decades later, Ms. Satrapi set to work documenting another tumultuous moment in Iranian history: the unrest in 2022 that followed the death, in police custody, of a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, who had been detained and accused of violating a law requiring women to wear the hijab in public.

In protest, women across Iran tore off their veils, in one of the most significant cultural and political moments in the country since the 1979 revolution.

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Protests broke out in Iran in 2022 following the death, in police custody, of a 22-year-old Kurdish woman. Ms. Satrapi’s book inspired by the events, “Woman, Life, Freedom,” came out in 2024.Credit...Woman, Life, Freedom

Ms. Satrapi’s work on the subject culminated in 2024 with the release of “Woman, Life, Freedom,” another work of graphic nonfiction. She contributed some drawings, but told The Times that she was more of a “director” of the project, which also featured work by other artists, activists, academics and journalists.

“Even basic human rights, they deny us,” she said of the Iranian government after the book was released. “You don’t have the right to dance, you don’t have the right to sing, you don’t have the right to do this, you don’t have the right to do that.”

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Ms. Satrapi contributed some drawings to “Woman, Life, Freedom,” but said that she was more of a “director” of the project, which also featured work by other artists, activists, academics and journalists.Credit...Seven Stories Press

Marjane Satrapi was born on Nov. 22, 1969, in Rasht, near the Caspian Sea, and grew up in Tehran. She had aristocratic ancestors, and her parents were cosmopolitan leftists; her father was an engineer and her mother designed dresses.

They opposed the Shah and protested against his government, but were disillusioned by the political and cultural crackdown that followed the revolution and the end of his rule. Marjane’s uncle was accused of being a Soviet spy, jailed and executed.

Marjane bridled against the new restrictions on dress and behavior. When she was 14, she hit a school principal who had tried to confiscate her jewelry, and her parents, worried for her safety, sent her to live with an Iranian family in Austria. There, she was overwhelmed by the experience of a very different world.

“At her nadir,” Simon Hattenstone wrote in The Guardian in 2008, “she was peddling drugs, homeless, and she almost died from bronchitis. After four years in Vienna, she admitted defeat, put on her veil and returned home.”

Back in Iran in 1989, she studied art in Tehran and had an early marriage that ended in divorce, then returned to Europe.

“Probably I left Iran because I was not brave enough,” she told The Seattle Post-Intelligencer in 2003. “I just needed to have more social freedom to be able to do my work.”

She got a second art degree in Strasbourg, France, before moving to Paris.

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Ms. Satrapi in 2012. Though she lived in France, she wrote that “to me the word ‘home’ has only one meaning: Iran.”Credit...Srdjan Stevanovic/WireImage, via Getty Images

“I like living there because I can smoke everywhere, but it is going to change,” she said in 2007, around the time that smoking was banned in many public spaces in France. (Two years before, she had published an illustrated ode to smoking in The Times.)

Maybe, she mused, she would move to Greece, which had yet to introduce such stringent smoking restrictions.

Her husband, Mattias Ripa, who helped translate “Persepolis” into English, died last year. Information about her survivors was not immediately available.

Ms. Satrapi wrote several children’s books and other graphic novels, including “Chicken With Plums,” the story of the death of her great-uncle, which was also turned into a film. Another of her works, “Embroideries,” depicted Iranian women discussing love, sex and men over afternoon tea.

She directed several feature films, including “The Voices” (2014), with Ryan Reynolds, and “Radioactive” (2019), starring Rosamund Pike as Marie Curie.

Her feature films included “The Voices” (2014), with Ryan Reynolds, and “Radioactive” (2019), starring Rosamund Pike as Marie Curie.Credit...Lionsgate and Amazon, via Everett Collection

She also won acclaim as a painter and was elected in 2024 to the Académie des Beaux-Arts, one of the highest honors in the French art world.

Though she created some of the best-known works in the graphic novel genre, Ms. Satrapi told The Times in 2007 that she never liked the category’s name.

“I think they made up this term for the bourgeoisie not to be scared of comics,” she said. “Like, ‘Oh, this is the kind of comics you can read.’”

She wrote frequently about her perpetual sense of dislocation — living away from her home country, but thinking constantly of it.

“I call Iran home because no matter how long I live in France, and despite the fact that I feel also French after all these years, to me the word ‘home’ has only one meaning: Iran,” Ms. Satrapi wrote in a 2009 essay for The Times.

“No matter how much I am in love with Paris and its indescribable beauty,” she added, “Tehran with all its ugliness will in my eyes forever be the ‘bride’ of all cities around the world.

THE NEW YORK TIMES 

History says 1 of these 5 teams will win the 2026 World Cup

 

 By Dan Santaromita 

Despite its 96-year history, the World Cup is an event with a limited number of data points. After all, it’s a quadrennial event that missed two editions due to World War II. With just 22 men’s World Cups to date, it’s still a young event in terms of total tournaments.

That simply means there are a number of consistent trends among winning teams that we can use to try to project who could win the 2026 World Cup. Let’s apply those common traits among previous winners to narrow down the 48-team field and see which teams are still left standing.

Before starting, a caveat. The most obvious common trait for projecting a winner is to pick among the previous winners. Only eight countries have ever won a World Cup. One of them, Italy, did not qualify for 2026, and Uruguay, which won two of the first four World Cups, is a long shot this year. The other six (Brazil, Germany, England, Argentina, France, Spain) are all among the top seven spots in the betting odds to win the biggest event for the world’s game.

This could be a quick and lazy endeavor where that one trait is applied, and then we say one of those six teams is likely to win it this year. While it is very likely that one of those six countries wins this World Cup, I’m going to resist that urge and pretend to be open-minded that there could be a first-time winner this year.

No country from outside Europe or South America has ever won a World Cup

Teams eliminated: 26, including the United States, Mexico, Canada, Morocco

This immediately cuts many teams, including all three hosts. This stat goes beyond World Cup wins; it also extends to simply making it to the final. Thirteen different nations have competed in a World Cup final: 10 from Europe and three from South America.

Even as far as semifinals go, only three times has a country from outside the two dominant continents made it: the United States back in the original World Cup in 1930, South Korea as co-hosts in 2002 and Morocco at the last World Cup. Morocco has emerged as an improving national team, winning the 2025 Under-20 World Cup, taking bronze at the 2024 Olympics and making the quarterfinals at the last two U-17 World Cups since that 2022 run. The Atlas Lions could break this streak at some point, but they’re still long shots for this year.

Host countries do have a strong record at World Cups, with six wins. Four host countries won their first World Cup on home soil, but none of them were complete surprise winners. That brings us to the next trend.

No country with an Elo Rating outside the top 17 entering a World Cup has ever won one

Teams eliminated: Paraguay, Austria, Scotland, Czechia, Sweden, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Elo Ratings are famous from the chess world and can be applied to national teams, even retroactively. Whatever you think of the FIFA World Rankings, they have only been around since 1992. The Elo Ratings can be traced back to the first World Cup and show that the World Cup has historically not been kind to underdogs, especially those not hosting.

The lowest Elo Rating of a World Cup winner entering the tournament was Uruguay at 17 in 1950. Uruguay winning in Brazil is one of the most famous upsets in World Cup history.

Extending the cutoff to 17 is being kind. Uruguay is the only winner outside the top 15, and 15 of the 22 winners ranked inside the top four.

Mexico (currently at 19 in the world), Morocco (24), Canada (25) and the United States (all the way down at 36) would all have fallen off here even if they weren’t eliminated in the first category.

No European team has won the World Cup without having multiple Ballon d’Or winners

Teams eliminated: Belgium, Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey

It makes sense that countries that produce the best players in the world also have successful teams.

The Ballon d’Or, first given out in 1956, was only awarded to players from Europe until 1995, so it’s not fair to apply this to South American teams (though Brazil and Argentina have combined for 13 wins in the 30 times the award has been handed out since).

Winning a World Cup tends to lead to a Ballon d’Or win (seven out of the 11 times when a winning team has had eligible players), but this rule still applies without those instances.

Of European countries, France has the most different players to win the award with six. Germany and Italy have five different winners, England has four and the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain have three each, as does the former Soviet Union (one Russian, two Ukrainians).

No team has won a World Cup with a foreign-born manager

Teams eliminated: Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, England, Portugal, Uruguay

To be honest, this stat is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The countries that are the best at the sport tend to have more qualified managers and have a tendency of being prideful in hiring one of their own. There is an undeniable correlation, but it’s harder to argue causality.

Would other foreign managers have been able to win with some of the squads that won World Cups in the past? Probably, but it’s also a pretty good stat.

When Brazil hired Italian manager Carlo Ancelotti, and England hired German manager Thomas Tuchel, this was part of the discussion. It’s harsh to hold it against a team for having Ancelotti, one of the most accomplished managers in the sport. This is a stat that will eventually come to an end, but for this exercise, we’re going to say it goes on for at least another four years.

Portugal is led by Spaniard Roberto Martínez while Colombia (Néstor Lorenzo), Ecuador (Sebastián Beccacece) and Uruguay (Marcelo Bielsa) all have Argentine managers. There are six Argentines managing at the 2026 World Cup, more than any other country.

Teams remaining: Argentina, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain

There’s nothing overly shocking about these remaining teams. Spain and France are the top two betting favorites entering the tournament. Argentina is the defending champion. Germany has won four World Cups, each at least 16 years apart, demonstrating their ability to win in different eras.

The Netherlands is the only team on the list that hasn’t won a World Cup, infamously losing finals in 1974, 1978 and 2010. The Dutch have tons of history in the sport and a talented roster that is still among the top eight favorites entering the tournament.

NEW YORK TIMES